Justin Snyder on St. Pete Polls and Peter Schorsch

Justin Snyder wrote a piece on the connection between St. Pete Polls and political consultant/blogger Peter Schorsch. Snyder questions if St. Pete Polls is truly unbiased.

Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18th of last year. Yesterday, St Pete Polls released a poll that the folks over at Daily Kos Elections had a field day with. It’s comically skewed towards Republicans (naturally) and prominent blogger Peter Schorsch (whom by the way has written scripts for St Pete Polls in the past, and currently has his own fights in the ethics department as reported in the Tampa Bay Times), covered the release of the poll with a soft piece that (naturally) DID NOT mention the gleaming disparity in the sample: the number of Republicans and Democrats that were actually polled.

The Voter Registration numbers in Florida’s 13th Congressional District per the Florida Division of Elections, tell us that the district is in fact 37 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 24 percent independent. However, St Pete Polls’ OWN WEBSITE tells us that the poll was conducted with a 47-35 bias in favor of Republicans. Yeah, let that sink in. I’m calling shenanigans.

Daily Kos notes that St. Pete Polls was off the mark on the last congressional elections. St. Pete Polls predicted victories for Allen West and David Rivera.

FL-02: St. Pete: Southerland (R) 47-47; actual: Southerland (R) 53-47; error: +6 D

FL-09: St. Pete: Grayson (D) 45-40; actual: Grayson (D) 63-37; error: +21 R

FL-10: St. Pete: Webster (R) 50-42; actual: Webster (R) 52-48; error: +4 R

FL-13: St. Pete: Young (R) 54-37; actual: Young (R) 58-42; error: +1 R

FL-16: St. Pete: Buchanan (R) 55-38; actual: Buchanan (R) 54-46; error: +9 R

FL-18: St. Pete: West (R) 51-42; actual: Murphy (D) 50.3-49.7; error: +9.6 R

FL-22: St. Pete: Frankel (D) 48-45; actual: Frankel (D) 55-45; error: +7 R

FL-26: St. Pete: Rivera (R) 46-43; actual: Garcia (D) 54-43; error: +14 R

Schorsch has used St. Pete Polls to write a very flattering piece about how David Jolly is ahead of Democratic opponent Alex Sink. Jolly also happens to be currently running an ad on St. Petersblog. Schorsch's former client Frank Farkas accused Schorsch of offering positive coverage in exchange for blog ad revenue.

Around October 2012, then-state House candidate Farkas said Schorsch called him. The blogger told him he would carefully screen what content related to Farkas appeared on his site if the politician signed an ad contract. "We didn't sign and I got what I expected: one-sided, slanted," Farkas said. "He stabs so many people in the back, and he continues to get away with it."

Conservative blogger Javier Manjarres noted that Schorsch wrote extremely positive posts about Southern Group Strategy after they bought an ad on a website owned by Schorsch. Southern Strategy Group has been accused of manipulating their earnings to increase their stock price. Schorsch has written about the Christmas card Southern Strategy Group sent out but made no mention of the controversy surrounding the lobbying firm.

Take St. Pete Polls and what Schorsch writes about his clients with skepticism.

Bill Clinton Robocall For Elizabeth Warren

I'm glad to see former President Bill Clinton giving his support to Elizabeth Warren in a robocall. The TPM Poll Tracker has Warren at 50.1 percent to Scott Brown's 47.1 percent. TPM has a list of polls that show Warren leading Brown. You know Brown is in trouble when he is behind in the Rasmussen poll.

Dean Chambers Predicts Romney Wins 301 Electoral Votes

Remember this after election day. On October 28th, Unskewed Polls tells us that Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama in 9 out of 11 swing states. Dean Chambers only has Obama leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In the real world, Romney is getting killed in the swing states. The TPM poll tracker averages out the major polls. The TPM numbers have Obama leading in ten swing states. Romney leads in Florida by 0.5 and North Carolina by 1.9.

Chambers calls the election for Romney. That is unsurprising for someone who accuses pollsters of having a liberal bias. That might explain why Chambers called Ohio for Romney. The Obama campaign is openly bragging about how they have Ohio in the bag. Anyone who calls Ohio for Romney shouldn't talk about other (real) pollsters being bias.

Dick Morris Predictions

Dick Morris predicts that Mitt Romney will win big. Never mind that that Romney is sinking in the polls and his campaign has become a disaster. It amazes me that Morris with his history of being wrong and his scandal-plagued past can still be a paid pundit.

Pollster Judson Phillips

Tea Party Nation founder Judson Phillips is the first blogger, I have seen, to write about President Barack Obama's poll numbers without citing the poll. I have no idea where Phillips got his numbers. Phillips mentions the Drudge Report in his post.

Right now, Obama loses the first question overwhelmingly. Only 25% of Americans strongly approve of the way Obama is handling his job while 44% strongly disapprove. That is a huge gap. Only 30% of Americans believe the nation is headed in the right direction.

President Obama's approval numbers have been going up in polls. The question is are we talking about Obama's approval rating on the economy or national security. A March 7, 2011 Gallup poll has Obama's approval rating at 45 percent. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Obama's approval at 50 percent.

Fifty percent of Americans approve of the president's job performance, his highest mark since the killing of Osama Bin Laden, while 45 percent disapprove. He leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 50 percent to 44 in a hypothetical match-up, an improvement from December, when he was effectively tied with Romney.

The poll showed Obama's approval rating has now improved to 45 percent among white women, a key voting bloc. Those numbers could stem from the improving economy, which has helped Obama's ratings overall, or the controversies in the GOP primary, particularly the recent debate on contraception.

Again, what exactly is Phillips referencing when he writes about Obama's approval rating. Americans are generally dissatisfied with the economy. Obama's approval rating on economic matters has been less than stellar. When it comes to women, Obama's approval rating has increased. (Rush Limbaugh supporter, Mr. Phillips, fails to mention that.) An AP-GfK poll show 53 percent of women approve of the president.

I like to know where Phillips got only "25% of Americans strongly approve." I like to know the size of the poll sample and what polling firm conducted the poll. Was this poll done through automated calls or by interviewers? Anyone who knows how to read a poll can tell that Phillips is either bullshitting or doesn't understand polling data.

Obama Ready to Cave On Bush Tax Cuts

According to Politico, Nancy Pelosi told Obama House Democrats will not back tax cuts for those earning over $250,000. Obama know Reid backs extending all the Bush tax cuts. Obama told Reid, in front of Pelosi, to work on his own tax cut package. Short answer: Obama caved on high end tax cuts that poll badly with the American people.

Tim Geithner and Lawrence Summers were at the meeting with Obama, Pelosi and Reid. Want to take a wild guess on if they support extending the Bush tax cuts for those making above $250,000?

A CBS News poll found 56 percent support letting the tax cuts for $250,000 and above earners expire. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll gave respondents four choices. Letting tax cuts for top earners was the most popular choice.

Eliminate all the tax cuts permanently: 10

Eliminate the tax cuts for those earning more than $250,000 per year, but keep them for those earning less than that: 39

Keep in place all the tax cuts for everyone for another year to three years: 23

Keep in place the tax cuts for everyone permanently: 23

This maintains my premise that Obama is not a policy wonk. The deficit commission was merely a bad dog and pony show. Obama used the defict commission so he could make claims of being bipartisan and and wanting to reduce the deficit. Obama's deficit commission reads like a horrible policy paper from the Cato Institute. (I should know since I have forced myself to read too many nutty papers.) Obama can't truly be interested in reducing the deficit if he allows the tax cuts for top earners to continue.

Update: Greg Sargent reports that Steny Hoyer backs holding a vote extending tax cuts for the middle class during the lame duck session. Ways and Means Committee chairman David Camp plans to block a middle class-only tax cut vote. It would be political suicide for Republicans to vote for tax cuts for the rich and then say they are doing this to jump start the economy. House Democrats understand this is good politics. Obama either doesn't understand the politics or silently backs tax cuts for top earners.

Update: this chart created by the Washington Post illustrates the stark differences between the Republican and House Democratic tax proposals. The bigger the dot the bigger the tax cut.

Kendrick Meek Zombie Watch: Real DEM Says Bye to DEM Voters

I wrote a post on Democratic voters leaving Kendrick Meek. Kenneth Quinnell decided to fact-check my post.

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"Also, your post says "Democrats Flee the Real Dem," despite the fact that Meek's numbers are about as high as they've been in the entire election cycle."

State of Sunshine blogger Jim Johnson had fun putting Quinnell's nonsense to rest.

"Ummm... polling shows that Meek is getting around 40% of Dems. That is not "as high as they've been" since he did win the primary."

You're referring to his apallingly low overall vote numbers. Marco Rubio has to be quite pleased that Meek is staying in this race. I have as much change of winning the Senate seat as Kendrick Meek."

Quinnell also maintains that Marco Rubio "beat" Crist even though the latter never ran in the Republican primary.

When I parse words, it's for the sake of more clarity and accuracy, which isn't quite what you did here. While it may be technically true that Rubio didn't beat Crist, in reality he did beat him, since the fact that Rubio was winning is why Crist left the party and went indy.

Kenneth, when you parse words is because you want to them to fit your own narrative. The truth is the latest Zogby poll is evidence that Democrats are leaving Meek.

Rubio - 39.6 percent

Crist - 33.3 percent

Meek - 18.1 percent

During this campaign cycle, I noticed one can tell if Team Meek is concerned by how stupid they sound.

“This race is ... not about polls, and the Democrats will come home making Kendrick Meek the next U.S. senator,” Dyk said.

Actually, Democrats may decide Meek doesn't have a chance and instead vote for Crist. The latest Public Policy Polling numbers (a Democratic firm) show Crist pulling away from Meek.

Rubio - 44 percent

Crist - 33 percent

Meek - 21 percent

The Quinnell narrative is bogus. Meek is losing Democratic support. A Mason-Dixon poll from earlier this month shows Meek with 42 percent to Crist's 37 percent support with Democratic voters. The difference narrowed from 9 percent to 5 percent. It is a joke when the "Real Dem" cannot pull over 80 percent of Democratic voters.

Why Republicans Want to Kill Financial Reform

The Senate Republicans commit political suicide by blocking the financial reform bill from being debated on the Senate floor. An ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 65 percent support stricter regulation. The GOP establishment is unhappy that Republican voters aren't strongly against financial reform. The same poll shows 52 percent of Americans trust Obama on financial reform.

Steve Benen asked why are Republicans scared to debate financial reform on the Senate floor.

But Republicans have a different approach in mind — they don’t want to even start the debate. Despite all the talk of the last year about transparency, GOP officials insist that all work on Wall Street reform occur behind closed doors, and the ideas that could be debated on the floor are instead hashed out in secret, in between Republican fundraisers with representatives of the very institutions affected by the legislation.

The answer is Wall Street gives out more lobbying money than any other industry. Sen. Mitch McConnell and Sen. John Cornyn met with 25 Wall Street executives to ask for more lobbying money. Republicans will kill financial reform in exchange for Wall Street helping get more Republicans elected. That is why Republican Senators have no interest in debating financial reform.

The Disappearing Public Option

I wrote a post two days ago noting the public option is polling higher than President Barack Obama. Jed Lewison noticed the same polling thread. The latest Research 2000 poll has the public option at 58 percent and the President's favorability rating at 52 percent.

Other polls:

CBS News has the public option at 60 percent. A Kaiser poll has the public option at 59 percent. With supermajorities in the House and Senate, it would appear possible to pass the public option. Greg Sargent found a White House memo that makes no mention of public option polling.

Okay, so the White House is circulating an upbeat polling memo citing a bunch of public surveys showing that public opinion still tilts heavily in Obama’s favor on health care.

The memo, by Obama pollster Joel Benenson, doesn’t mention the public option (the White House may not be committed to it) and largely cites general numbers showing support for action and for Obama’s plan.

But here’s the funny thing: We went back and checked, and virtually every poll cited in this memo also found strong support for the inclusion of a public plan.

The only public option poll cited by the memo is an MSNBC poll with the public option at 43 percent. Sargent explains the poll was controversal because it did not inform respondants the public option was a choice. It is clear the Obama administration wants to kill the public option. There are sereral polls showing support for the public option. The White House chooses the worst poll.

Back in June, Obama refused to firmly back the public option. Obama cut a deal with Big PHAMA. Obama agreed to Medicare not being able to negotiate for lower drug prices. The pharmaceutical industry passes $80 million in saving over ten years. That is $8 million-a-year. That is a wise investment for multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical industry. Millions of Americans receive their prescription drugs through Medicare. Wal-Mart was able to negotiate for chaeper prescription drugs. Obama will not allow Medicare the same right. Big PHAMA will continue to makes billions by rasing prices.

Obama attempted to appoint Tom Daschle as Health & Human Services Sec. Daschle has longstanding ties to health reform opponent UnitedHealth and Alston & Bird. Daschle is a registered lobbyist. This was the man Obama told American that would reform health care.

Obama is against the public option. It was the carrot on the stick to entice progressives. The Obama plan is Big BIG PHAMA happy and mandate every American buying private health insurance. The health industry lobbying money will put Obama over the top in 2012. I can't think of another reason.

Obama has the supermajorities. The public option is polling well. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the 60 member Progressive Caucus will not pass a health care bill that excludes the public option. Obama is not attempting reform and had closed door meeting with health industry officials. Every passing day makes Obama less of the reform candidate proclaimed himself to be.

Crist Says 'Internal Polling' Shows McCain Leading in Florida

Would a journalist please ask Charlie Crist to release the internal polling showing John McCain winning Florida?

“I’m hearing some very encouraging numbers, you know, some polls reporting [McCain] three or four points up already in the Sunshine State,” the governor said.

McCain may win Florida. Earlier this year, I thought Florida would stay red. That doesn't mean I am going to take the word of a McCain supporter. I don't expect Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to say anything, but Obama is winning. The media should call McCain and Obama supporters when they say they have "internal polling" that favors their candidate. If they can not provide the polling data then voters can rightfully question the truthfulness of these surrogates. I'm tired of the media not taking campaign surrogates to task and printing their quotes as the gospel truth.

Real Clear Politics shows John McCain dropping in the Florida polls. The latest Zogby poll has Barack Obama leading 47.2 percent to 46.9 percent. The margin of error makes the Zogby poll a toss up. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen poll Obama at 51 percent.

Governor Crist, put up or shut up.