Gravis Market Poll on Scott, Crist and Gay Marriage

Gravis Marketing has Charlie Crist leading Gov. Rick Scott in its poll. Crist leads Scott 46 percent to 36 percent.

A problem for Scott is his high 52 percent disapproval rating.

Scott has had plenty of time to get Floridians to warm up to him. Scott has horrible media and people skills. Scott's policies have been unpopular with the public. Another example of how voters feel Crist is less robotic than Scott. Crist has a 13 point lead on who understands average Floridians.

Gay marriage activists should be happy about the poll more people support gay marriage than oppose.

The poll has a 3 percent margin of error. Gravis Marketing tweeted me this repose to my question.

@pushingrope not working for anyone in the race.

— Gravis Marketing (@GravisMarketing) November 15, 2013

No Love For John Boehner

Pandering to the tea party and not standing up to Ted Cruz has not paid off for House Speaker John Boehner. A new CNN poll shows Boehner's unfavorable rating hitting 55 percent. Members of Congress usually don't poll well under the best circumstances. However, this is painful for Boehner.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi saw their unfavorable ratings go down. Reid had an unfavorable rating of 45 percent in September. This month Reid unfavorable rating went down to 40 percent. Pelosi's unfavorable rating went from 51 percent in September to 47 percent in October.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell weathered the government shutdown better than Boehner. McConnell's unfavorable rating went from 39 percent to 42 percent. McConnell is up for re-election in 2014. He is probably grateful he didn't have as high a public profile in the shutdown as Boehner.

The CNN poll shows the Republican Party with an unfavorable rating of 64 percent. The tea party has an unfavorable rating of 56 percent. Ted Cruz and the tea party is sinking the Republican brand. What is problematic for the Republican establishment is Sen. Ted Cruz promising another government shutdown.

“I would do anything, and I will continue to do anything I can, to stop the train wreck that is Obamacare,” Cruz said when asked by ABC News’ Jon Karl whether he would rule out another shutdown. “The test that matters Jon, is are we doing anything for all the people that are getting hurt from Obamacare?”

Best Campaign Mailer Photo Ever

Peter Schorsch made his own comments about St. Petersburg City Council candidate Darden Rice's campaign mailer. I will keep my comments more pro-feminist and PC. I think that is the best set of photos of a candidate in ages. Here is the rest of the flyer.

Rice's tea party opponent David McKalip had to respond to Schorsch posting the flyer on his blog.

My cards have MEAT. I will cut taxes, she will raise them. I signed the petition to stop the lens, she played politics and hid.

REAL Solutions from a candidate you can TRUST – -that is what my cards say.

"My cards have meat"? That is McKalip's attack line to use against Rice? That is hysterical. McKalip appears in a hospital coat at tea party rallies. McKalip should look at that flyer and realize voters are more likely to vote for the candidate that looks like a movie star. Although, I'm sure the Rice campaign trembles at McKalip handing out his meat cards to voters.

Update: Schorsch has his polling numbers. Short answer: Rice is handing McKalip his ass.

The truth is Rice is running away with the race, at least in the primary. According to a survey conducted by St. Pete Polls and commissioned by this blog, Rice has a wide lead over her next closest rival, Dr. McKalip. Among likely voters, Rice receives 32% support, McKalip is at 17%, Carolyn Fries is at 11% and Richard Eldridge is at 4%. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Gallup Poll Shows Support For Raising the Minimum Wage

Via GottaLaff: the Gallup poll finds 71 percent of Americans support raising the minimum wage.

Raising the federal minimum wage is typically a crowd pleaser when it comes to policy prescriptions, and Obama's proposal to push the rate from the current $7.25 to $9 is no exception. The 71% vs. 27% balance of U.S. public opinion in favor of passing it is convincing, particularly when considering that even half of Republicans are in favor.

In fairness, the Gallup poll has been off the last two presidential elections. However, a USA Today/Pew Research Center showed support for raising the minimum wage at an identical 71 percent. A You Gov poll had a lower number of 62 percent.

President Barack Obama is advocating raising the national from $7.25 to $9.00. House Speaker John Boehner is unsurprising against raising the minimum wage.

Debate Poll: Obama Wins Big

Obama crushes Mitt Romney in the CBS News post-debate poll.

BREAKING: CBS NEWS INSTANT POLL Who won the #Debate? OBAMA: 53%; ROMNEY: 23%, TIE: 24% (Margin of Error: 4%; Sample Size: 521

There is No Moral Majority

Jerry Falwell liked to tell Americans there was a "Moral Majority" of people that hated feminists, gays and black people with the same passion as him. The controversy surrounding Rush Limbaugh's "slut" remark disproves Falwell's claim. The latest proof that Americans don't buy into social conservatism is the new Gallup poll

Mitt Romney now leads Rick Santoum by 16 percent. Republican voters didn't suddenly decide that Romney was the second coming of Ronald Reagan. GOP voters can't stand Santorum's self-ri'ghteousness. Alex Leary of The Tampa Bay interviewed Pennsylvania voters and found that Republicans felt Santorum spent too much time discussing social conservative issues.

"He's too preachy," said Marilyn Harrison, 80, who remembers Santorum knocking on her door in Mount Lebanon in his first Senate run in 1994 and being impressed with his vibrant attitude. In 2006, Harrison crossed party lines and voted for Democrat Bob Casey Jr., whose father had been immensely popular as governor and shared Santorum's pro-life views.

"Santorum is out of step with the day," Harrison said. "I'm not against family values, but I don't want him imposing his version on others."

Amen.

Rick Scott Wins Worst Governor Ever Poll

The Transport Workers Union of America have awarded Rick Scott the title of "Worst Governor Ever." Scott beat out fellow Republican governors Rick Perry, John Kasich and Scott Walker. Transport Workers cited Scott's restrictions on voting as the main reason for him winning.

Scott beat out former Fox News pundit and current Republican governor John Kasich. The man is is not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Kasich kills the brains cells of every person in the room when he speaks.

Update: It appears that the Transport Workers Union of America will try to present Scott's award to him in person.

After Worst Governor Ever election results are certified this week, Governor Scott will soon be inaugurated as The Worst Governor Ever, live in person, officially kicking off his term as America’s Worst Governor Ever.

Sarah Palin Winning Like Charlie Sheen

Pay no attention to Karl Rove saying that Sarah Palin will run for President. A Dittman Research poll Palin's approval rating at 36 percent in her home state of Alaska. Palin's unfavorable rating is 61 percent. In a hysterical twist is Palin's arch-nemesis Lisa Murkowski has a godlike approval rating of 71 percent.

Winning!

Triangulation Man: Liberal Support For Obama Erodes

The CNN poll showing Obama losing support with liberal voters is not an anomaly. The latest Washington Post shows President Obama suffering a significant loss with liberal voters.

The Post-ABC poll found that the number of liberal Democrats who strongly support Obama’s record on jobs plunged 22 points from 53 percent last year to 31 percent. The number of African Americans who believe the president’s actions have helped the economy has dropped from 77 percent in October to just over half of those surveyed.

Bill Clinton didn't beat Bob Dole in 1996 because Dick Morris' triangulation strategy was brilliant. The economy was growing, there was peace and Clinton was a superb candidate. The Clintonites used triangulation as cynically as the Reaganites sold supply side economics. Clinton was never obsessed with school uniforms. Reagan's economic team wanted to tax to shrink government. The Reaganites never believed that tax cuts would create surpluses.

The problem with current Democrats and Republicans is they take the talking points of popular president as policy gospel. Obama is getting his ass kicked truing to be triangulate when he should pushing job creation. Republicans failed miserably with supply side economics during the Bush years. That hasn't stopped Obama or Republicans from governing from cynical talking points of previous administrations.

Why American Research Group Poll is Suspect

Gov. Rick Perry leads a Republican presidential candidates in the American Research Group poll. This automatically struck me as fishy. Perry hasn't offically declared himself a candidate. The poll only sampled 600 people. The question's wording.

If the 2012 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, Charles Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

Why include Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani? It is obvious they are not going to run. It would have been better to poll declared candidates and another polling question with declared candidates and potential candidates.

Go to the American Research Group web site. There is no information on who runs the company or its customers. Blogger Jacksonian did research and found AMG is run by La Fell Bennett aka Dirk Bennett.

AMG has a history of running polls for Republicans and getting the results wrong.

The New Hampshire-based American Research Group's tracking poll ended up buried deepest in the snow bank: They had Bush winning by two the day before the primary, merely 20 points off the mark. On the Democratic side, the losing pollster at least got the winner right: The Quinnipiac poll predicted Gore would win by 17 percentage points, but he actually won by four.

It was the second debacle for ARG in as many New Hampshire Republican primaries. The day before the 1996 contest, ARG's Dick Bennett told the Union Leader, "It looks like Dole's going to win," based on the Kansan's seven point advantage in their tracking poll. He didn't, losing to Pat Buchanan by a single percentage point.

Bennett only polls people with landlines. This leaves out young people and skews his polls to older conservatives.

Another interesting tidbit is Bennett's own attorney Kendall W. Lane turned against him. Bennett's father died. Bennett was a co-chair of a trust with his mother Jane Bennett. Bennent had his mother placed in a nursing home and declared mentally incompetent. Bennett's three sisters got suspicious about Bennett's reports of the value of the trust. The case went to the New Hampshire Supreme Court.

The Rules of Professional Conduct define "reasonably believes" to mean that "the lawyer believes the matter in question and that the circumstances are such that the belief is reasonable." N.H. R. Prof. Conduct Terminology (2005). The evidence indicates that Lane knew that Dick Bennett, along with Jane Bennett, was a co-trustee of the trust created after Robert Bennett’s death. Lane knew that in August 1995, Dick Bennett provided an accounting showing that the trust had over $300,000 exclusive of certain real estate. However, in March 1996, Lane learned from Ann Kunz Bennett that Dick Bennett was concerned about the trust finances. In May 1996, Lane learned of another accounting showing a balance of $65,917. In August 1996, Lane learned that Ann Kunz Bennett had discovered an invoice and a cancelled check indicating the existence of a John Hancock policy. Lane corroborated the existence of the policy by contacting John Hancock. Lane also learned that the $100,000 proceeds from the policy had been paid into a joint account in the names of Jane and Dick Bennett. Neither the existence of the policy nor the deposit into the account had been disclosed by Dick Bennett in any of the accountings for the estate or the trust. In addition, Lane knew that Dick Bennett had denied the existence of the insurance policy.

At the time of the disclosure, Lane knew that there had been a large, sudden and mysterious diminution of the trust assets between August 1995 and May 1996. Lane knew that there was a life insurance policy payable to Jane Bennett, that Dick Bennett knew about the policy, that Dick Bennett had not disclosed the existence of the policy, that the proceeds had been deposited into a joint account to which Dick Bennett had access and that, in fact, Dick Bennett had denied that there was any insurance policy. In light of the above facts, we conclude that Lane proved by a preponderance of the evidence the applicability of Rule 1.6(b) as an exception to Rule 1.9. Accordingly, the evidence supports the referee’s finding that Lane reasonably believed that his disclosure was necessary to prevent future criminal activity by Dick Bennett, see RSA 638:11, I.

In concluding that Lane could not have had a subjective belief that his disclosure was required to prevent the commission of a crime because he was aware of a possible innocent explanation for Bennett's conduct, the dissent places the bar too high. Lane's reasonable belief need not have been beyond a reasonable doubt. Lane's belief could well have been founded upon a conclusion that Dick Bennett was likely committing a crime, that of taking money from his mother or the estate, and would continue to do so.

Similarly, the dissent's conclusion that Lane could not have formed a subjective belief that Dick Bennett was currently or would in the future engage in criminal activity because all the evidence of suspected wrongdoing was circumstantial is without merit. Crimes can be established beyond a reasonable doubt with circumstantial evidence alone. Therefore, a mere reasonable belief based upon the preponderance of the evidence that a crime is now or will likely be committed could certainly serve as the basis for a subjective belief.

Lane was brought to the New Hampshire Supreme Court for a six month suspension for turning against his client Bennett. Fortunately for Lane, the court found Bennett's behavior so sleazy that he only got a public censure.

Considering Lane's past behavior with money, it is fair to ask who is paying for the ARG polls. If Bennett is being paid by by certain candidates that perform well in ARG polls then this should be known to the public. I have not seen Rick Perry lead in any Florida polls. It is fair to ask if Perry is a client of ARG. Sadly, the media and bloggers run this poll without asking these questions.

Triangulation Man: Obama Losing Base

From my email box. A CNN Poll shows the Left is unsatisfied with President Obama's performance.

President Obama's approval rating falls to 45%, driven in part by dissatisfaction from the left with Obama's track record, a new CNN/ORC International poll released today suggests.

The new poll shows that 38% disapprove of Obama because he has been too liberal, but 13% percent say he has not been liberal enough, nearly double those who felt that way in May. His approval rating among liberals is at 71%, an all-time low for his presidency. Overall, those who disapprove of Obama is at 54%, tying an all-time low hit just before November's midterm elections.

Poll respondents' negative opinions weren't reserved just for the president, though -- 55% of all Americans have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party, a 7-point increase since March. And only 37% feel the GOP's policies would move the country in the right direction, a 9-point drop since the start of the year.

This isn't 1996. People do not want Obama being more Republican. The CNN poll shows the vast majority of Americans do not like the direction the Republican Party is going in. The majority of the people who think Obama is too liberal haven't been paying attention and will not likely vote for him.

The truth is Obama hates progressives. The President mockingly calling Sen. Bernie Sanders "you progressives" illustrates that Obama does not consider himself part of the movement.

Latest Rick Scott Poll

Viewpoint Florida polled likely voters and found that 51 percent disapprove of Gov. Rick Scott job performance. These numbers are actually better than Scott previous poll numbers. Only 45 percent of likely voter approve of Scott's performance. Team Scott is probably popping the champagne corks after their 29 percent approval rating in the Quinnipiac Poll.

Below is a breakdown of the numbers.

DT-FL-USS-12P-ScottIVR-FREQS

Update: the poll was conducted by Republican operatives Randy Nielsen (Public Concepts) and Pat Bainter (Data Targeting). Team Scott should be concerned that GOP operative could only skew the poll to a 51 percent disaproval rating and still seem credible.

Update: Peter Schorsch writes, "Head to the kitchen right now, break out the Morton’s and take the following poll with more than just a grain of salt."

Another Poll Shows People Don't Support Ryan Budget

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll finds 58 percent oppose the Paul Ryan plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program. Only 35 percent support Ryan's proposal. 56 percent think the Ryan plan would be bad for the elderly. Senior citizens are in agreement. 74 percent of seniors oppose the plan.

People are catching on to the Party of No.

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, a majority also don't think the GOP has cooperated enough with President Barack Obama and, for the first time since they won back control of the House last November, the number of Americans who say that Republican control of the chamber is good for the country has dropped below the 50 percent mark.

What Ryan doesn't add is that the Congressional Budget Office ruled that repealing the Obama's health care reforms would add $230 billion over the next decade. Ryan's tax cuts would also add to the deficit. Ryan isn't trying to reduce the deficit. He wants to shrink government and shift the tax burden on the middle class. George W. Bush did that and job creation during his administration was horrendous.

Peter Brown on Rick Scott's Poll Numbers

Peter Brown of Quinnipiac polling discusses Gov. Rick Scott's horrible polling numbers. Like I noted, Brown points out that Scott is plling below average with Republicans.

Rick Scott's Approval Rating

It is going to be interesting how Gov. Rick Scott's communications director Brian Burgess tries to spin this. The latest Quinnipiac Poll has Scott with a 29 percent approval rating. Scott dropped from 35 percent in April. Ouch.

Two out of three Florida voters dislike the way Governor Rick Scott is leading the state, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday. The rookie governor barely won election, garnering less than half the vote…

And once he took office, his plans to layoff state workers, privatize prisons and freeze regulations brought crowds of protesters to Tallahassee.

Contrary to what Scott thinks the protesters aren't chanting, "Hail Caesar." Apparently, Scott didn't like getting sports talk radio host Sid Rosenberg asking about his approval rating.

Q: The approval ratings came out today -- 29 percent, that's the lowest in the country for any governor. Are you confident that you're going to do things here, that you're going to create the jobs to get that number up? I mean, I know you're going to tell me that the number doesn't bother you. But 29 percent, Rick? That's got to bother you.

Scott: "Here's the deal: I was elected to get our state back to work. If you think about it, when you go make all the tough decisions, when you walk into a budget deficit of $3.7 billion and you hold people accountable — you make eduction is headed in the right direction, you make sure that you're getting the jobs back, it takes time for those things to happen. We're on the right track. The right things are going to happen. ... I'm sorry, I've got a 4:30 meeting I'm already late for."

The Miami Herald reports that Scott had no 4:30 meeting on his schedule. Scott wants to be president and constantly choked when he is asked simple questions. A good politician is prepared for question about bad poll numbers. Scott had staff and time call at 4:45 PM. Scott had a staff and call time at 4:45 PM. Scott can postponed his day end briefing with staff members.

Read more »

Another Day, Another Rick Scott Poll

A Suffolk University poll shows 53 percent of Florida registered voters disagree with the way Rick Scott is governing Florida. 41 percent of respondants have a "negative or damaging" view of Scott. Only 26 percent had a positive view of Scott.

The sample was only 600 registered voters. 57 percent of the voters were Democrats. (Only 18 percent were registered Republicans.) So it was unlikely for the poll to come out in Scott's favor. The poll does reaffirm that Scott is not popular.

The Florida Obama 2012 campaign should worry that a poll with so many Democratic respondants shows the president only 1 percent above Mitt Romney in a general election match-up.

Good news for Democrats is no one has any idea who is running against Sen. Bill Nelson.

Hillary Clinton Gallup Poll

Hillary Clinton's favorability rating is at 66 percent in a Gallup poll.

Triangulation Man: Independent Voters

President Barack Obama is using the political strategy of triangulation to court independent voters for the 2012 election. The strategy means ignore the progressive base and support policies such as extending the Bush tax cuts. Let's see how Obama is doing with independent voters in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Obama's approval among independent voters who he will need for his 2012 re-election drive took a sharp dive, to 37 percent from 47 percent, the poll found.

It is going to get worse when Republican presidential candidates hit the campaign trail and hammer Obama's economic policies.

Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll on Unions

A WSJ/NBC poll found 62 percent of respondents found it "totally unacceptable" to take collective bargaining away from public sector unions. 77 percent of respondents support public sector unions having the same rights as their private union counterparts.

Respondents would like public union members to pay more into their health care and retirement benefits. That is something unions will haggle over. Ultimately, there will be some give with public sector unions.

The whole point of collective bargaining is to bargain. What Scott Walker is proposing is to not even allow public sector workers to come to the table. That means governors like Walker could layoff employees or eliminate benefits without notice. The truth is public sector workers make less than private sector counterparts doing the same job. Walker and other Republicans are living in a fantasy world be suggesting public sector workers are super rich. Ask your postal worker how many yachts he has and see if he doesn't look at you like you are insane.

The Reason Foundation released a study claiming public sector workers are paid more than the private sector. The Reason Foundation is funded by Board of Trustees member David Koch. Gov. Walker made national news by being punked by a bogus Koch. The New York Times reported Koch is funding Gov. Walker's effort to abolish collective bargaining. The Reason Foundation can hardly be considered an unbiased third party.

1,000 people were surveyed for the poll. There is a 3.1 percent margin of error.

Fox News Poll on Obama v. Jeb Bush

Fox News has a poll showing that President Obama would trounce Jeb Bush.

Obama - 54 percent
Bush - 34 percent

Bush is polling at Sarah Palin numbers. Palin polls 35 percent against Obama's 56 percent. Republicans would argue that Bush has been out of the spotlight for several years. That is certainly true and Bush has repeatedly said he has no plans on running. If Bush mounted a campaign his numbers would probably spike. Palin has been in the spotlight and her numbers are a disaster. My believe is Palin is more interested in making money as a celebrity than governing.

The poll was conducted by Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research. Fox News claims the former is a Democratic polling outfit and the latter a Republican firm. I can't find the Shaw & Company Research web site. Anderson Robbins Research's clients page reveals the polling outfit will work for anyone. The polling sample was only 911 registered voters in the United States. Anyone who reads polls knows that is a low sample. Short answer: the poll is interesting but don't take it too seriously.