Obama’s Shay Party Problem

[This will be posted to my Islamic issues blog, The Middle Everything, tomorrow morning.]

American politicians have become accustomed to thinking that maintenance of status quo will bring stability to their domestic and foreign policy objectives, but two phenomenons that have occurred since 2008 should shatter this belief. (I say “should” with the implication that it won’t, because if there’s another beast on this planet more stubborn than an American politician, I’d like to know what it is.)

The Republican party is currently suffering an identity crisis — the Tea Party phenomenon.

Here’s what happened: For decades Republican politicians would push support for conservative issues to their base, but then never act towards resolving these issues. For the sake of simplicity, I’ll focus on abortion. Republican politicians said abortion is evil and we must outlaw it, and that’s been their stance since the US Supreme Court decision Roe v. Wade was handed down in 1973 — but for decades, abortion stayed legal in America. It’s still legal despite the fact that, during the majority of President George W. Bush’s term, the Republicans controlled the Executive and Legislative branches of federal government. With a conservative leaning Supreme Court, many conservative voters that Republican politicians considered their natural base of voters itched for action — they wanted abortion overturned. They wanted abortion made illegal now.

Republican politicians balked, though. Without issues like abortion to froth up anger in their base of voters, what else could they use to create voter anger to channel to the voting booth and vote Republican? The Republican Party was stuck in a quandary of having all the power — but taking ultimate action on their issues was a risk to that power.

Eventually, a new crop of politicians like Sarah Palin arose to take care of this problem for the Republicans. Sarah Palin is basically a 100% representation of the kind of conservative voter Republicans have pandered to, but she doesn’t take no for an answer. She doesn’t care about the details, she just wants what the Republicans have promised her for years.

Sarah Palin is the essence of the conservative voter base Republicans used for years to prop themselves into power, tending it by playing to their emotions, telling them “Vote for us and we’ll make abortion illegal!”; among other promises. Now Republicans must battle with the insatiable base they created. The Republicans thought holding a carrot on a stick in front of their voter base would create stability, but instead it created an earthquake.

How does this relate to foreign policy, especially for Islamic nations that I primarily write about now? For some reason, the Republican Party’s troubles with the Tea Party are the first thing I thought of when pondering Obama’s reactions to the ongoing Egyptian Revolution.

It would be dishonest not to mention that Obama is a victim of decades of Middle East and North African (MENA) foreign policy objectives laid before him by previous presidents; and the primary concern of American foreign policy for the often volatile MENA region is maintaining stability so we continue to have access to oil and the Suez Canal. But America is also supposed to be a beacon of democracy to the rest of the world, so I’ve been wholly unsatisfied with Obama’s refusal to tell Egyptian Dictator Mubarak to listen to his people and resign from office.

After Mubarak used his 2/1/2011 speech to try telling the world that all the Egyptian people wanted from him was to handpick a new government to put into place, Obama’s follow up speech was equally as out of touch with the demands of the Egyptian people. Obama said Mubarak needs to “manage the aftermath of these protests” — what aftermath? Just because the dictator refuses to step down immediately means the protesters leave the streets? I’ll skip the speculation on just how violent clashes between the government and protesters could become because of Mubarak’s continued arrogance, but it isn’t speculation to say that Obama is out of touch with reality.

Or, rather, Obama’s trying to maintain the reality that MENA dictatorships propped up by American soft (and occasionally hard) power will continue to exist.

I realize that Obama is walking a fine line right now. If he casts off Mubarak’s regime in his public proclamations, that’s an open invitation the the rest of the American-supported dictators that we will not support you if your people revolt — a message that will be heard loud and clear by the people of MENA countries. America’s primary foreign policy objectivity in the MENA region is to maintain stability.

But after decades of American presidents telling the American people — and people around the world — that we support democracy, Obama supporting Mubarak no matter what decision he makes has created problems for him at home and abroad. Obama was elected to office on the mantra of “Hope and Change” — but his Egypt policy has been anything but. Obama’s base of voters clamor for equality at home and abroad, and one must wonder if a representative of the Democrat Party base of voters, equivalent to Sarah Palin on the right, will rise up.

More importantly, though, are the masses on the streets outside of America’s borders. The people who, for years, we claimed we would support in their endeavors to create democratic societies — all while propping up their dictators with billions in American financial aid. Successive American presidents assumed this schizophrenic foreign policy would maintain stability in the MENA region.

Well, they were wrong.

The Republican Party has a Tea Party Problem. The Arabic word for tea is “shayy” — coincidentally, in American history, a citizens revolt happened from 1786-87 called “Shays’ Rebellion”. So I think calling the situation the president finds himself in “Obama’s Shay Party Problem” is appropriate.

Yalla innas ilmasri! (Let's go people of Egypt!)

[This will be posted on my Islamic issues blog, The Middle Everything, tomorrow.]



I wish I could this is one of the latest photos of the protests in Egypt, but it's a photo my friend Faisal took of the scene at Tahrir Square, Cario, in late 2009 -- after Egypt won their first World Cup qualifier match against Algeria.  If you see a white dude in the picture, that's probably me; there weren't many of my kind around that night.

During this happy football riot, I was with an Iranian AUC student I had just met that night, Wahid.  As we surveyed the scene at Tahrir that night, Wahid impressed upon me the point that I was witnessing something very, very special.  The leaders of Middle Eastern nations hardly ever let masses of people congregate together, whether it be for celebration or a protest.  I was witnessing something that happens only a few times in a lifetime.

I'll tell you what, I wish I was back in Egypt witnessing it again.  And given my activist past and marching towards riot cops in my own country (Seattle, 1999, during that little WTO thing...), I'd probably participate despite the risk.  After all, I wouldn't want to be one of those pansy fleeing foreigners.

Understanding foreign cultures at a detailed level is difficult.  Americans can read all the history and political science books and articles about Egypt they want, but those are just an author's interpretation of Egyptian society.  They pick and choose topics they want to cover.  But when you're living there, trying to make sense of Egyptian society for yourself but struggling with the language, gaining your own understanding is difficult.  It's a task that can't be accomplished in the four short months I was blessed to study out there.

But I did feel a palpitatble,  very tangible vibe of a repressed society and failed government.  When I complained about the cab drivers ripping me off, some Arab friends of mine at AUC would remind me that these cab drivers have law degrees -- yet they are driving a cab.  How does this happen?  Egyptians are not uneducated people.  Take a walk through the Khan el-Khalili and you'll hear merchants talking in English, French, Russian, and Italian; trying to sell their wares.  Social economists would say Egypt has a lot of "human capital" the government can invest in and build their economy off of.  So what happened?

Well, for one thing, the government of dictator-for-life Honsi Mubarak is corrupt as hell.  It is holding Egyptian society back.  It's a typical case of a dictator ruling by fear in order to stay in power.  Whether they are a violent dictator who choose to murder thousands (the Saddam route), or they are more benign, it's still disgusting.

But with the recent mass protests in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, and other Egyptian cities, the only question now is what will hold the Egyptian people back?

The Islamic Revolution in Iran started out as simply the "Iranian Revolution" -- not was not religious.  It was a revolt against a dictator-for-life named the Shah who couldn't administrate a society to save his life.  (As is turned out for the Shah, my last statement is literal.)  The Shah didn't bring jobs, education, or even electricity to the Iranian countryside -- as a result, shantytowns formed around Iran's major cities.  Many Iranian people lived in dire conditions, and that helped foster a revolt.

Similarly, if you go around the outskirts of Cairo, poor neighborhoods are spouting up -- very similar to shantytowns.  Jobs in Egypt are in its cities, and the major city is Cairo.  But even when you goto Alexandria, there is the rich tourist area near the Mediterranean coast, and the demographics of the neighborhoods get progressively -- and drastically -- poorer the farther away from the shore you travel.  I've seen the neighborhood of Sayid Darwish's first house -- tourism dollars do not hit that part of Alexandria.  Which, by the way, is only a couple miles away from the Sheraton.

Many commentators that will be quoted by Western news outlets will downplay the notion of President Mubarak being driven from office.  Looking at the state of Egyptian society, and comparing it to pre-revolution Iran, I'm not dismissing this notion.  The conditions in Egypt are ripe for a people's coup. And being the democracy-supporting American that I am, I fully support the overthrow of Mubarak's corrupt government.

Of course, the implications for in the Western world for Arab democracies cannot be understated.  If Mubarak has accomplished one thing, it's this: He's made the world forget about Egyptian power.  He's kept the populace under his thumb and hasn't challenged the peace pact with Israel.  For the past 30 years, Egypt has been a sleeping giant.

Well, the giant is about to be startled.  Tunisia just screamed in the giant's ear, and it is awakening from it's slumber.  If a new, more democratic government takes hold in Egypt, there will be a massive ripple effect across the Middle East.  And nobody will doubt the power of the giant.