It's the Economy, Obama People

Economist Brad Delong served in the Clinton administration. Delong knows several people in the Obama administration and is amazed by how out of touch they are.

When people in the White House ask me whether I think Obama's SOTU address should be about tax reform or Social Security reform (i.e., 2/3 Social Security benefit cuts, 1/3 tax increases offered by the administration--and God alone knows what happens after that), I want to say: Why not make the SOTU address about jobs and economic recovery?

Perhaps the Obama administration need to watch the documentary The War Room. The movie chronicles the successful 1992 Bill Clinton campaign. James Carville wrote the words "the economy. Stupid." Many Americans are either unemployed or underemployed. President Obama needs to talk about the economy and jobs. If Obama claims the tax cuts will stimulate the economy then he and the American people will be sadly disappointed.

Establishment DEMs Tiring of Obama

Politico reports Sen. Bill Nelson told other Senate Democrats, in a private meeting, that President Barack Obama's unpopularity is becoming a political liability to the party. Nelson declined to comment to Politico. Translation: Nelson made these complaints in the caucus meeting and can't deny it. Nelson wasn't the only Democrat at the meeting who was unhappy with Obama.

Several senators expressed the opinion that Obama needed to show more passion, while party liberals renewed their complaint that Obama should abandon the pretense of bipartisanship in the face of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's intransigence and what they consider the Kentucky Republican's blatantly political tactics aimed at making Obama a one-term president.

Going back to the Illinois legislature, when has Obama ever dugged in and waged a partisan battle over policy. Obama the partisan policy fighter does not exist. Joe Klein in his book Primary Colors perfectly described politicians who come from a legislative body and want to be in the executive branch.

He was a former insurance salesman, had the terminal gray look. And you can almost see him troping closer and closer to Stanton with each stop. I hated this part of it - reminded me of the crap I had to do with Larkin: stroking, stroking, promising, praising. But, then, Barry Gaulter was a legislator. Stanton was right about that: they were a lesser breed.

Economist Brad Delong is so unimpress with Obama's fiscal policies that "nobody who has not served a full term as a state governor or managed a similarly large organization should be supported in any presidential run." Obama ran on vague platitudes of "change" and "hope."

Indications are that Obama is willing to give in to the Republicans on the Bush tax cuts. The fact that Obama is willing to put on the facade of bipartisanship over the deficit shows a lack of political seriousness and courage. Obama's principle over policy earned a public rebuke from James Carville.

"If Hillary gave up one of her balls and gave it to Obama, he'd have two," Carville said at a "Christian Science Monitor" breakfast discussion.

Carville refused to apologize for his remark. Obama never makes Republicans pay for attacking him or his policies. Democrats now realize there is no fight in Obama.

Obama's view is he can attack progressives because he will have no primary challenger. That strategy helped keep liberal voters at home. Obama fails to understand that independent voters are not a Democratic base. Unfortunately, Obama is willing to pander to independent voters, many of whom are Tea Party supporters, at the expense of progressive policy. If Obama had a primary challenger he would have to push for more progressive policy.

Quote of the Day

"During the campaign... their message of 'what we are doing is working,' people would get mad, okay. Most kind of messaging is not very effective, it just goes in one ear out the other. This one, it went in one ear and right to the brain. What were they thinking? It was almost universal. And as opposed to saying 'These irresponsible, greedy people got us into this mess and we are the only thing between you and them, and we are fighting every day and we understand.' We kept telling them, don't tell them it's working... The White House had the best and brightest. But they mis-underestimated this."

James Carville, on the the failed midterm message strategy of the White House.

Tea Bag People

Republican strategist Mary Matalin accidently calls the Tea Party "tea bag people." Her husband James Carville can't contain his laughter. Cable news is is why the Daily Show will never run out of comedy material.

Hat tip to GottaLaff.

Write A Caption: James Carville

James Carville has made the netroots angry again. I thought I join in the fun.

Democrats Tired of Obama Apathy on BP Spill

Democrats are getting restless with President Barack Obama's handling of the BP oil spill. Democrat strategist James Carville warned that The Obama administration is "naive" by letting BP take the lead in the clean up.



he CNN Transcript:

CARVILLE: They haven't told the truth about anything. They were criminally negligent in the deaths of 11 people as they were striving to get profits.

But what I'm -- concerns me is that -- I hate to say this, but I think the United States government is naive. They're -- they're -- they're -- we could have subpoenaed that on day two. We are the United States government. We have the power to subpoena. We have the Justice Department, the Interior Department, the EPA, the God knows whatnot.

We're sitting around, in my opinion, and just not doing anything, not treating this like what it is, is a disaster of the first order.

To make matters worse, Florida CFO (and Obama supporter) Alex Sink sent a letter to the President. Like Carville, Sink is urging Obama to take the lead.

Dear Mr. President:
The Deepwater Horizon oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico has become a disaster of epic proportions for those of us who live and work in the region. By whatever standard one views this situation – environmental or economic – what’s clear is that we are all suffering due to the lack of a workable plan to stop the leak and take care of the residents and businesses that have been affected.

I have said this crisis could have the same effect as a Category 5 hurricane hitting our state. Floridians want to know: Where is the Federal government’s leadership? For the past month, Gulf coast residents have been waiting for BP as they attempt different strategies to stop the leak. I ask you, for the good of the entire region, to take over the process to stop the leak. Within the Federal government alone there are multiple resources that could help develop solutions. Please bring together the best and brightest in the industry both in our country and around the world, including those who have deepwater drilling expertise in Norway and Australia.

As Florida’s CFO, I am hearing stories from residents and business owners located along the Gulf coast, from Florida’s Panhandle down to the Florida Keys. Their lives and livelihoods are being destroyed by the absence of a coordinated response coming from the Federal government. For instance, hotel bookings in the Panhandle normally carry above a 90-percent occupancy rate this time of year, but the Panama City News Herald reported last week that some hotels are experiencing decreases of 50 to 60 percent compared to the same time last year.

Further, they are facing unnecessary obstacles as they try to get help. Clearly, leaving the small business and residential assistance to BP is not working. BP is not forthcoming with the information we need and is not capable of addressing the numerous needs our communities are facing. Why must a small business owner looking for assistance through this crisis have to work through BP – why isn’t the Federal government handling claims of lost income and revenue, and interfacing with BP on behalf of Florida’s citizens? Further yet, there are numerous reports of more drilling-related activity underway in the Gulf, including the granting of waivers on several projects, despite your call for a moratorium until the cause of the Deepwater Horizon leak has been found. Given the severity of the current situation, I ask you to enforce the moratorium you called for.

I am also requesting that Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar and Commerce Secretary Gary Locke meet with the Governor and the Florida Cabinet at tomorrow’s regularly scheduled Cabinet meeting in Tallahassee to brief us on the Federal government’s efforts. I realize this is short notice, so I would be happy to request an emergency Cabinet briefing for another date to hear from the administration.

Mr. President, our communities, our environment, and our economy are all at stake. We are looking to the White House for help.

Regards,

Alex Sink

The reason the White House is not pressing BP America more is the administration is corporate-friendly. The White House did not include a public option in their proposal. Health care industry stock prices increased after millions of Americans would be mandated to buy private insurance. Obama made a deal with the Pharmaceutical Researchers and Manufacturers Association to not allow Medicare to negotiate for cheaper prescription. The federal government is not allowed to do what the free market Wal-Mart does with the pharmaceutical industry. President Obama received $71,051 from BP and has voiced approval for offshore drilling.

Republicans are equally in love with corporate lobbyists. That doesn't mean progressives should declude themselves into thinking Obama shares their ideals. The President and other neo-liberals in the White House would crawl over glass to protect corporations. It is embarrassing when Kevin Costner is showing more leadership than Obama.

Quote of the Day 2

"Well, remember, it's who the American people are referring to, Larry. And the American people are looking to voices like Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levine, Glenn Beck."

Michele Bachmann, On Larry King Live

Bachmann is a comedy gold mine.

Liz Cheney Hearts Birthers

Liz Cheney gives a shout out to birthers and refuses to denounce their silly conspiracy theory.

CHENEY: No, I’m not saying that. I’m saying that people are fundamentally uncomfortable and they’re fundamentally, I think, increasingly uncomfortable with an American president who seems to be afraid to defend America. Who seems to be afraid to stand up for what we believe in.

What evidence does Cheney have that President Barack Obama is afraid to defend America? Obama ordered an increase of troops to Afghanistan. Obama ordered Navy SEAL snipers to kill Kenyan pirates. The pirates had taken a hostage and the Navy was concerned about the man's chances of survival. These facts contradict Cheney's assertion that Obama will not defend America.

James Carville summed up Cheney's support of the birthers.

CARVILLE: Let me hurl a fact around. These people….these poor, pathetic people believe stuff, just like Ms. Cheney tonight. She refuses to say it’s ludicrous because she actually wants to encourage these people who believe that. It’s just a simple thing: “This is a nutty thing. There’s nothing to this, I disagree with this president’s policy.” They can’t say that. They can’t say that because they’re scared they’ll lose the sort of nut wing of their party.

The "nut wing" is all Republicans have left.

Palin the New Newt

New York congressional candidate Scott Murphy is running for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand vacated seat. President Barack Obama endorsed Murphy.

What is interesting is Democrats are using the faces of George W. Bush, Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh for contributions. This isn't an accident. James Carville was the architect of to elevate Limbaugh and his anti-Obama comments. Carville's next target is Palin.

“Her name conjures up all kinds of reactions in people’s minds,” Carville told me, adding that her association with the campaign will be used to portray the GOP as hidebound and to alienate moderates. “She’s an uncomfortable figure for a lot of Republicans,” Carville says. “They want to move beyond her. We like her.”

“Luckily, she seems to present us with an opportunity every few days,” added a senior Dem strategist. “You could say it’s a turkey shoot.”

When Newt Gingrich left Congress, I remember Clinton officials saying they were going to miss not having him to kick around. Gingrich is popular with the base but was forced out of office by his own party. Gingrich didn't run for President in 2008 because he wouldn't have a chance in hell. Most of America view him as nutty.

I doubt Palin can organize a presidential campaign strong enough to garner the nomination. Bobby Jindal, Mark Sanford and Mitt Romney aren't anymore exciting. The GOP connects with the base at the cost of losing the center.

Al Gore Endorses Barack Obama

Al Gore informed his supporters

A few hours from now I will step on stage in Detroit, Michigan to announce my support for Senator Barack Obama. From now through Election Day, I intend to do whatever I can to make sure he is elected President of the United States.

Over the next four years, we are going to face many difficult challenges -- including bringing our troops home from Iraq, fixing our economy, and solving the climate crisis. Barack Obama is clearly the candidate best able to solve these problems and bring change to America.

I've never asked members of AlGore.com to contribute to a political campaign before, but this moment and this election are too important to let pass without taking action.

That's why I am asking you to join me today in showing your support for Barack Obama by making a contribution to his campaign today:

https://donate.barackobama.com/support

Over the past 18 months, Barack Obama has united a movement. He knows change does not come from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or Capitol Hill. It begins when people stand up and take action.

With the help of millions of supporters like you, Barack Obama will bring the change we so desperately need in order to solve our country's most pressing problems.

If you've already contributed to Barack Obama's campaign, I ask that you consider making another contribution. If you haven't, please join the movement right now:

https://donate.barackobama.com/support

On the issues that matter most, Barack Obama is clearly the right choice to lead our nation.

We have a lot of work to do in the next few months to elect Barack Obama president and it begins by making a contribution to his campaign today.

James Carville told CNN that Obama should put Gore on the ticket.

“I think if I was Senator Obama I would say the biggest economic problem we face is the biggest national security problem and the biggest environmental problem,” Carville told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on the Situation Room. “And if I were him, I would ask Al Gore to serve as his vice president, his energy czar, in his administration to reduce our consumption and reliance on foreign energy sources.

“That would send a signal to the world, to American people, to Congress, to everybody, that America's getting serious about this horrendous problem that we face.”

It's an interesting idea. It would help Democratic turnout. Many people are still sore about the 2000 election controversy. Clintonites would be less sore about Hillary's defeat with Gore on the ticket. Gore can reassure voters uncertain about Obama's experience.

The flip side is Gore is a horrible campaigner (Earth tones) and has a political tin ear. Although, Gore's instincts have been tempered by his presidential defeat.

Quote of the Day

"Mr. Richardson’s endorsement came right around the anniversary of the day when Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver, so I think the timing is appropriate, if ironic."

James Carville, on Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama.

The great thing about Hillary Clinton not getting the nomination is that James Carville will fade into obscurity. Not a moment too soon.

Write A Caption: Mary Matalin and James Carville

Mary Matalin and James Carville answer the question what would Gollum and the Scarecrow be like if they married.

2008 Battleground Districts

The ltest Democracy Corps poll has good news for Democrats heading into 2008. In fairness, polling information by James Carville always favors Democrats.

In the battleground of the 70 most competitive congressional districts (35 Democratic and 35 Republican-held), the Democratic incumbents, including the big class of freshmen, have quickly moved into dramatic leads in the named congressional ballot (52 to 40 percent)2. Whatever is happening for Congress is not evident for the individual members whose named job approval is rising along with their vote advantage over the Republicans. (These battleground results are based on 1,451 interviews in a survey of 1,600 that will be completed tomorrow.)

In the 35 Republican battleground districts, the named Republicans trail their generic Democratic opponent by 5 points (49 to 44 percent). Republicans are almost in as much trouble as in 2006 in their top tier congressional races.

In a poll conducted for MoveOn across seven Republican-held U.S. Senate seats, the named U.S. Senators had a vote to re-elect of only 37 percent and were garnering only 44 percent of the vote against a generic challenger. The current battles are putting even more Republican Senators in jeopardy.

The overall image of the Democratic Party has fallen back from the honeymoon post-election period to essentially where it stood for the whole 2006 election period —and that has been stable since April. On the other hand, the Republicans have weakened in the current period since April to their lowest thermometer score in the past half century.

A growing percentage of the country, now 61 percent, want their member of Congress to vote to change President Bush’s direction on Iraq and start requiring a reduction of troops; just 35 percent want their member to not undermine the President. The margin for a Congressional mandate has grown from 16 to 26 points in the last month. The forces pushing voters to demand change are growing, not diminishing.

Other polling numbers have shown the Iraq war to be increasing unpopular. This will sink the party. Karl Rove has been attempting to downplay the war's unpopularity and site Republican corruption as the reason for to GOP's woes. Times are desperate when Rove will point out the K Street culture of corruption.

Quinnipiac Florida Presidential Poll

The latest Quinnipiac poll isn't good news for Democrats. Rudolph Giuliani beats every Democratic presidential candidate in Florida.

Giuliani - 50 percent
Clinton - 40 percent

Giuliani - 52 percent
Obama - 36 percent

Giuliani - 50 percent
Edwards - 40 percent

John McCain beats Barack Obama 45 to 39 percent. John Edwards beats McCain 43 to 41 percent. McCain beats Hillary Clinton 45 to 44 percent. So much for the Hillary winning Florida theory.

Al Gore is polling well for someone not in the race. Mitt Romney is polling poorly with evangelicals. Giuliani is doing better than expecting with evangelicals. The message is people would rather disagree with candidates then have them pander false beliefs. Romney comes across as a candidate who has been focus-grouped-to-death.

Only Giuliani and Edwards have 50 percent or higher approval ratings. The poll proves two things.

a). Edwards is the best Democratic candidate for Florida.
b). Democrats have a lot of work to do in the state. Democrats look at Florida as a swing state, but the only recent state-wide races Dems have won is Bill Nelson and Alex Sink. God, help the Dems if Hillary gets the nomination. Howard Dean and Rahm Emanuel are going to have to take marching orders from James Carville.

Can Hillary Clinton Win Florida?

Tally has an interesting post about what it would take for Hillary to win to White House. Tally points to a James Carville and Mark Penn op-ed on how Hillary can win the states John Kerry won. Keep in mind that Carville is a paid Clintonite. It also isn't that convincing. I hate to break it to Carville, but people believe that Hillay's support of any issue (the Iraq war, anti-flag burning and anti-video game violence) is strickly cynical.

What is more interesting is interview Carville did. He listed the Southern states he thinks Hillary could win.

Carville puts Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia in Tier 1, with Louisiana and Tennessee in Tier 2. That makes sense in terms of ranking, but I pressed him to pick the one state he thought Hillary was most likely to flip, if she were to win only one. He picked Florida. Though I'd agree with his ordinal rankings, I'm not sure she can win any of them. But yes, Florida is the most likely.

Tally points out that Hillary has to do well in the I-4 corridor. She doesn't stand a chance in the panhandle. This part of Tally's post bothers me.

But, if some good candidates (like Rod Smith) can be recruited, and the FDP and DCCC can coordinate the campaigns so that they’re effective, and Hillary can divert enough money to them to get the message out, then it’s possible some of the Republican congressmen can be defeated as well.

The top of the ballot is supposed to lift the other candidates. Not the other way around. It certainly is good to have strong candidates on the lower parts of the ballot. I would certainly love to see Rod Smith run again. But he isn't going to get Hillary into the White House.

It would be interesting to see how many women voters Hillary could get. That would certainly help her cause.

John Edwards would be a stronger candidate in Florida during the general election. He is the perfect Democratic candidate to run in the South. Barack Obama is hard to gauge since there has never been a candidate like him. He is certainly a better a better speaker and has less baggage than Hillary.

I need more polling data. I like to see how Hillary is doing with women and I-4 voters. Tally's post does break down what Hillary needs to win Florida. I'm still not completely convinced.