Saturday, March 31, 2007

Can Hillary Clinton Win Florida?

Tally has an interesting post about what it would take for Hillary to win to White House. Tally points to a James Carville and Mark Penn op-ed on how Hillary can win the states John Kerry won. Keep in mind that Carville is a paid Clintonite. It also isn't that convincing. I hate to break it to Carville, but people believe that Hillay's support of any issue (the Iraq war, anti-flag burning and anti-video game violence) is strickly cynical.

What is more interesting is interview Carville did. He listed the Southern states he thinks Hillary could win.

Carville puts Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia in Tier 1, with Louisiana and Tennessee in Tier 2. That makes sense in terms of ranking, but I pressed him to pick the one state he thought Hillary was most likely to flip, if she were to win only one. He picked Florida. Though I'd agree with his ordinal rankings, I'm not sure she can win any of them. But yes, Florida is the most likely.

Tally points out that Hillary has to do well in the I-4 corridor. She doesn't stand a chance in the panhandle. This part of Tally's post bothers me.

But, if some good candidates (like Rod Smith) can be recruited, and the FDP and DCCC can coordinate the campaigns so that they’re effective, and Hillary can divert enough money to them to get the message out, then it’s possible some of the Republican congressmen can be defeated as well.

The top of the ballot is supposed to lift the other candidates. Not the other way around. It certainly is good to have strong candidates on the lower parts of the ballot. I would certainly love to see Rod Smith run again. But he isn't going to get Hillary into the White House.

It would be interesting to see how many women voters Hillary could get. That would certainly help her cause.

John Edwards would be a stronger candidate in Florida during the general election. He is the perfect Democratic candidate to run in the South. Barack Obama is hard to gauge since there has never been a candidate like him. He is certainly a better a better speaker and has less baggage than Hillary.

I need more polling data. I like to see how Hillary is doing with women and I-4 voters. Tally's post does break down what Hillary needs to win Florida. I'm still not completely convinced.

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At April 01, 2007 10:17 AM , Blogger Vox Populi said...

It is cynical.

I think I'm going to suppport Edwards. I'm not 'anyone but hillary' but almost.

It's cool that you and I disagree a bit on individual pols but in general, I still concur with most everything you say. You have rather quickly become one of my top five voices to read. And, again ... I've found many stellar voices through you. Thanks.

Enjoy your day.

These Democrats trip on themselves when they support anti-flag burning. While I wouldn't like to see the flag burning --- I'd like to see that everyone knows that is the highest expression of freedom if one desires to do so.

Anything else is a step towards oppression. But those we pay to uphold the constitution should KNOW this without me telling them.
Hillary has support from the big-money South Tampa people. Some happen to be women. Some are ... Steinbrenner, etc.. very NY connects. When she was here I was noting the comings and goings. I'm not impressed.
Edwards inspires me more. Hillary -- been down that road. MOL.

At April 01, 2007 2:01 PM , Blogger tas said...

From the bottom of the WaPo op/ed, I find this description of that rabid infant: "James Carville, a Democratic political consultant and commentator, was chief strategist in Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign."

WaPo makes *no* mention of the fact that Carville is working for Hillary in some capacity now. Isn't that a bit journalistically unsound, having someone employed by a candidate write a glowing piece about that candidate on your op/ed page but then not mentioning the author's association to the candidate? The deadwood press sure screams up a storm about bloggers who have any hint of conflict, yet they give those like Carville, who are obviously conflicted, a forum. Nothing hypocritical there, just move along folks...

As for Hillary in general, if she wins the nomination she's going to get her clock cleaned in the general election. The right has been salivating for her to run since 2000; Hillary is their Democratic dream candidate. She doesn't have enough charisma to counter all of the outrageous attacks that are flung her way. The Swift Boat lies helped capsize Kerry's campaign and that was small potatoes compared to the shit the right will throw at Hillary. 2008 will be a slaughterfest of epic proportions if she wins the primary.

But suppose she actually does become president. What happens then? In the last email I got from her campaign, Hillary promised universal health care, the end of the war in Iraq, etc.. I read it and kinda went, "Uhm, what?" Here's what would happen if Hillary is elected president: Congress shifts back to the Republicans in 2010 and government stops until Hillary leaves office, either by defeat in 2012 or impeachment thereafter. These people went insane when Bill was president; crazy enough to spend %60 million looking for a fucking blowjob. Anybody who thinks that a Hillary administration would be less of a circus needs to check themself into a mental institution.

If Hillary actually cared about her country she would drop out of the presidential race immediately. She's much too polarizing to become an effective president.


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