Can Hillary Clinton Win Florida?
Tally has an interesting post about what it would take for Hillary to win to White House. Tally points to a James Carville and Mark Penn op-ed on how Hillary can win the states John Kerry won. Keep in mind that Carville is a paid Clintonite. It also isn't that convincing. I hate to break it to Carville, but people believe that Hillay's support of any issue (the Iraq war, anti-flag burning and anti-video game violence) is strickly cynical.
What is more interesting is interview Carville did. He listed the Southern states he thinks Hillary could win.
Carville puts Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia in Tier 1, with Louisiana and Tennessee in Tier 2. That makes sense in terms of ranking, but I pressed him to pick the one state he thought Hillary was most likely to flip, if she were to win only one. He picked Florida. Though I'd agree with his ordinal rankings, I'm not sure she can win any of them. But yes, Florida is the most likely.
Tally points out that Hillary has to do well in the I-4 corridor. She doesn't stand a chance in the panhandle. This part of Tally's post bothers me.
But, if some good candidates (like Rod Smith) can be recruited, and the FDP and DCCC can coordinate the campaigns so that they’re effective, and Hillary can divert enough money to them to get the message out, then it’s possible some of the Republican congressmen can be defeated as well.
The top of the ballot is supposed to lift the other candidates. Not the other way around. It certainly is good to have strong candidates on the lower parts of the ballot. I would certainly love to see Rod Smith run again. But he isn't going to get Hillary into the White House.
It would be interesting to see how many women voters Hillary could get. That would certainly help her cause.
John Edwards would be a stronger candidate in Florida during the general election. He is the perfect Democratic candidate to run in the South. Barack Obama is hard to gauge since there has never been a candidate like him. He is certainly a better a better speaker and has less baggage than Hillary.
I need more polling data. I like to see how Hillary is doing with women and I-4 voters. Tally's post does break down what Hillary needs to win Florida. I'm still not completely convinced.