Nate Silver Sums Up Why Politico Sucks

Pollster Nate Silver notes that Politico places more effort in churning out content than investigative reporting.

“Politico is … it’s like ‘Who won the day?’ kind of thing, right?” Silver responded. “They’re trying to cover it like it’s sports, but not in an intelligent way at all, right? And they want to create noise, basically, right? Their whole thing is, you have to have a lead story about some gaffe that some candidate made on the campaign trail.”

Politico isn't bias in a Fox News manner. Their reporters are intellectually lazy. Case in point is Jonathan Martin not understanding that Silver was crunching the numbers of national polls and averaging them out. Silver has always been upfront about this. Did Martin think that Silver was talking into a magic 8 ball.

What was remarkable to me is that you had some, like, journalist for, um, Politico, or something … who, like, tweeted … ‘All Nate’s doing is averaging polls and counting electoral votes?’ … ‘That’s the secret sauce?’ It’s like, well, yeah, and the fact that you can’t comprehend that very basic thing … that says more about you than, than about me, right?”

We have a political media class that attacked Silver and gave Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls free publicity. This is the political media equivalent of picking Ball State to win the national championship.

Triangulation Man: How Obama Avoids Passing His Agenda

Tas wrote a post about how President Barack Obama avoids trying to forward a progressive agenda.

Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of Obama and much of my criticism would be viewed under the light of me being a member of the "Professional Left". I don't think Obama is a fighter, and he doesn't have the vision to use the bully pulpit provided to him by the Presidential Office to change the job description of that office; as well as public opinion.

Pollster Nate Silver wrote on Twitter that Obama avoids policy fights when public opinion is on his side.

Dodd-Frank is a good example of something where WH had public opinion on its side but exerted little effort.

It is unfair to compare gay marriage to the public's sour mood of Wall Street. What is perplexing is that Obama wanted to do the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell after the midterm elections. There would not have been enough votes to defeat the filibuster. Fortunately, LGBT and progressive groups kept pressure on Obama. The repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Don't was not cited as the reason why Democrats lost seats in Congress. Obama's strategic instincts on politics and policy turned out to be horrible.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo passed gay marriage by going after what Republicans care about most - campaign contribution. Money always trumps policy for the Republicans.

But the donors in the room — the billionaire Paul Singer, whose son is gay, joined by the hedge fund managers Cliff Asness and Daniel Loeb — had the influence and the money to insulate nervous senators from conservative backlash if they supported the marriage measure. And they were inclined to see the issue as one of personal freedom, consistent with their more libertarian views.

Within days, the wealthy Republicans sent back word: They were on board. Each of them cut six-figure checks to the lobbying campaign that eventually totaled more than $1 million.

Triangulation isn't an excuse to not govern. If Obama's big dream as a child was to have more Americans buy private health insurance then he should have become an insurance company CEO. In Obama's defense, Mitch McConnell, John Boehner and Eric Cantor have no interest in Obama passing any kind of legislative agenda. However, when Michael Steele defeats Obama's hand-picked DNC chairman Tim Kaine and McConnell is out messaging a speaker of Obama's skills then it is fair to point out there is a problem. When Obama does go on the attack, like he did against Paul Ryan and Donald Trump, his opponents fold like lawn chairs.

Update: Press Secretary Jay Carney tells the White House press corp. that Obama will not defend DOMA because he believes it is unconstitutional. Carney will not say if Obama supports gay marriage. Does the White House their position the President won't publicly support marriage that should be legally allowed under the 14th amendment. The White House position is a mess and will get attacked from all sides next year.

Q On another topic, last week the President spoke about gay marriage when he was in New York and he said that -- talked about how this has been the province of the state and that's the -- referring to what was happening in the debate in New York, he said that's the power of democracy at work. Does that mean that he also respects the outcome of democracy at work in California where voters rejected the idea of gay marriage?

MR. CARNEY: Well, I think as you saw in the decision we announced that we would no longer -- this administration would no longer be participants defending the Defense of Marriage Act because we do not believe it's constitutional, that it's precisely because of his belief that this was a matter that needs to be decided by the states. So without commenting on a particular other state, I think he was making that clear with regard to the action in New York.

Q Okay, but --

MR. CARNEY: But I'm not going to put words in his mouth applying to another state. I mean, you can analyze that, but -- because I haven't heard him say that. But obviously the DOMA decision -- what he said in New York was about his belief, our belief, that this is a matter that states should decide.

Q And the central argument in the challenge to Proposition 8 by supporters of same-sex marriage rights is that this isn't something that should be decided state by states, in fact, that there are federal rights involved. So would he reject --

MR. CARNEY: Well, the President very strongly supports equal rights and he's -- we've been -- he's made that clear as well, and he said it again in New York at the event that you're discussing. So I'm not going to --

Q But I'm referring to the --

MR. CARNEY: I don't really have a lot I can say about Proposition 8 with regards to what the President said last week. You know, I don't -- I'm not willing to go to what the President didn't discuss. I can talk about what he did discuss.

Nate Silver Projects David Rivera Victory

Nate Silver of The New York Times is giving David Rivera a 78.9 chance of winning Congressional district 25. Silver is a smart statistician. My take is he is basing his findings on the district being traditionally Republican and GOP voter turnout. Those factors help Rivera.

Polls have shown the race to be a toss up. The conservative Sunshine State News shows Garcia leading Rivera 44 percent to 43 percent. The Sunshine State News polls are unreliable and Republican-leaning. I'm not are what to make of SSN having Garcia up by one.

This and several other progressive blogs have documented the serious ethical lapses committed by Rivera. The Repubican candidate has faced allegations of domestic violence and road rage. Rivera falsely listed doing work for U.S. Agency for International Development on his disclosure form. USAID has no record of Rivera working for the organization. Rivera's personal conduct makes him unfit for public office.

I really hope Nate Silver is wrong about this race. Other ethically-challenged Republicans, such as Marco Rubio and Jim Norman, are going to be elected. A Rivera victory would signal that Florida Republicans can do whatever they want and face no consequences for their actions.

Kendrick Meek Zombie Watch: Meek is 'Surging' Talking Point

Sen. Bill Nelson plays pollster. Nelson predicts Kendrick Meek will leapfrog over Charlie Crist in the polls.

"Absolutely not, because I think Kendrick is surging and I think this is going to end up being a race between Kendrick and Marco."

The only thing working against Nelson's prediction is this pesky thing called reality. The TPM Poll Tracker averages out the major polls. Meek is 23.4 percent behind Rubio. Meek has never been in second place in the TPM Poll Tracker. This is a Rubio and Crist race.



New York Times pollster and blogger Nate Silver recently gave Meek 0.6 percent chance of winning. These numbers can hardly be described as "surging."



Not even Gen. David Petraeus could make this surge work. A Public Policy Polling poll show if Crist dropped out Meek would still trail by 7 percent. We could let this Senate race go on another year and Meek still couldn't make his case to voters.

If Meek dropped out Crist and Rubio would be even. Meek will lose no matter what the scenario is. Democrats made a horrible mistake running a candidate who never had a hard race. Running a Congressman with little name recognition against the star power of Rubio and Crist is insanity. Florida Democrats should stop letting Bill Clinton pick cronies for failed Senate runs. Democrats need to field better candidates or will continue to lose.

Another Blue Dog About to Bite the Dust

Conservative Democrats never learn. Suzanne Kosmas is the latest casuality. She voted against the health care bill. Kosmas also backed extending the Bush tax cuts. This pandering to far-right Republicans who will never vote for her has dropped her in the polls. The result is the DCCC is pulling two weeks of ad buys for her campaign.

"The DCCC constantly makes adjustments based on the level of Republican activity in a district," DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen said in a statement. "We are fully invested in the critical voter contact efforts in Suzanne Kosmas’s campaign. We will continue to keep our options open as events change and remain confident that our efforts, coupled with Suzanne’s overwhelming financial advantage, will ensure a victory in November."

If the DCCC is so confident about Kosmas' chances their would not have pulled their television ad money. I always hate when political parties say their candidate is going to win when their actions dictate otherwise. In the future, I will call political party spin, such as this, doing a Kenneth Quinnell.

Kosmas positioned herself to the right. The Right is going to vote for Republican Sandy Adams. Voters like to see a candidate actually stand for something. To the voter that projects strength. Jim DeMint and Michele Bachmann sound deranged to me, but I understand that their supporters think they are fighters. It is the same reason that Paul Wellstone and Al Franken were able to get elected. I am not sure what Kosmas stands for and that is the reason she will probably lose.

Update: Nate Silver gives Sandy Adams an 84.2 percent chance of winning. Kosmas' chances of winning are 15.8. I guarantee Chris Van Hollen (who has done agood job at the DCCC) will not mention anything about Silver's number.

Kendrick Meek Zombie Watch: Landslide

"Florida has had its share of close elections, but this Senate race really ought to be a landslide. And it would be if people just look hard at the facts."

Kendrick Meek, or more likely a campaign staffer.

Wow. Kendrick Meek should win in a "landslide" if people paid attention to his talking points. I am willing to examine the facts. Nate Silver rates Kendrick Meek as having a 1.7 percent chance of winning. The TPM Poll Tracker averages out the major polls and finds Meek running a distant third. Apparently, Abe Dyk's brilliant Jim Davis strategy is getting Jim Davis results.



It occurred to me that the Kendrick Meek campaign needed a theme song that best summed up their efforts. I thought a song tinged with sadness would best suit the campaign. Let's be real. The election day results will be sad and maybe even a landslide. Unfortunately for Team Meek, they will be on the wrong end of the landslide.

Nate Silver Predicts Sink Has 63.8 Percent Chance of Winning

Pollster Nate Silver has upgraded Alex Sink's chances of winning to 63.8 percent. Silver used 100,000 simulations to come to this conclusion. Note: this is not poll numbers. Silver is merely predicting what Sink's chances of winning are.

Rick Scott's problem is his based is soft. Scott was fortunate enough to run against Bill McCollum. Scott is now running against a candidate that has more support with the base and the establishment of the Democratic Party. Sink raised $525,000 the first ten days after the primary. Scott raised a less impressive $43,000. As Christine O'Donnell proved, the Tea Party is not a great source of fundraising. Another possible reason is people are more reluctant to give campaign contributions to a candidate as wealthy as Scott. Nevertheless, the difference in fundraising numbers should give Republicans concern about how much people like candidate Rick Scott.

Tea Parties End With A Whimper

The Tea Bagging movement is really sad. The Tea Party protest for Lafayette Square in Washington, D.C. drew hundreds of people. The truck to dump the million tea bags drove around for hours. The truck driver finally dumped his tea bags without much fanfare.

In October 2002, the first major Iraq war protests drew 100,000 in the District of Columbia and 50,000 in San Francisco. Fox News has been promoting the tea parties for weeks. Nate Silver lists the Denver tea party's as the most attended at 5,000. The Huffington Post reports Fresno, California having 7,500 in attendance. The numbers can be disputed. I fail to see this movement as having much traction.

These are the same conservative that believe Barack Obama is not an American citizen. Most tea party protesters are rallying against their own economic self-interest. Obama's Make Work Pay policy will provide tax cuts to 95 percent of Americans.

Middle class families will see their taxes cut – and no family making less than $250,000 will see their taxes increase. The typical middle class family will receive well over $1,000 in tax relief under the Obama plan, and will pay tax rates that are 20% lower than they faced under President Reagan. According to the Tax Policy Center, the Obama plan provides three times as much tax relief for middle class families as the McCain plan.

Families making more than $250,000 will pay either the same or lower tax rates than they paid in the 1990s. Obama will ask the wealthiest 2% of families to give back a portion of the tax cuts they have received over the past eight years to ensure we are restoring fairness and returning to fiscal responsibility. But no family will pay higher tax rates than they would have paid in the 1990s. In fact, dividend rates would be 39 percent lower than what President Bush proposed in his 2001 tax cut.

Obama’s plan will cut taxes overall, reducing revenues to below the levels that prevailed under Ronald Reagan (less than 18.2 percent of GDP). The Obama tax plan is a net tax cut – his tax relief for middle class families is larger than the revenue raised by his tax changes for families over $250,000. Coupled with his commitment to cut unnecessary spending, Obama will pay for this tax relief while bringing down the budget deficit.

The Tea Baggers are protesting against increased taxes of the top 5 percent. Obama repeatedly stated he will not extend the Bush tax cuts. The media assumed Obama would immediately end the Bush tax cuts.

Asked Monday when those hikes might go into effect, Obama said, "Whether that's done through repeal, or whether that's done because the Bush tax cuts are not renewed, is something that my economic team will be providing me a recommendation on."

Obama will let the cuts lapse in 2011. Obama will go into the 2012 election by claiming he hasn't raised taxes. In a technical sense, that will be true. It will also be true Obama didn't do anything to decrease the taxes of the wealthy. Obama is giving the GOP little ground to attack him on taxes.

Conservatives have been obsessed about taxes. The fringe conservatives don't know that Obama is cutting taxes and wouldn't believe it if the evidence was in front of them. Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, and Rush Limbaugh say Obama is raising taxes. And no one knows more about economic policy than a talk radio host.

A CBS/New York Times poll 71 percent support tax increases for the wealthy. I have seen other polls with the same trend. The GOP message of tax cuts for the wealthy at all cost is a political loser. The fringe conservative base is going to scare off voters. This photo by Edward Favara from a Tampa tea party rally is a perfect example.

Photo by Edward Favara

Democratic Voter Turnout

The Buzz reports that Democrats have outvoted Republicans by 331,274.

Through Saturday, according to the Democrats' latest tally, 38 percent of all Florida voters have cast ballots -- 4.2-million votes in the bank -- and 331,274 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Another 710,066 independents have voted.

Democrats have cast nearly 52 percent of the 2.55-million early votes, and Republicans nearly 31 percent. Republicans have cast about 48 percent of the absentee ballots returned and Democrats about 36 percent.

Turnout is expected to top 1992. Pollster Nate Silver placed Florida in the McCain win column "IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT)." The Real Clear Politics average of Florida polls has Barack Obama at 50 percent. John McCain must win Florida to win the election. The same doesn't hold true for Obama.

Republicans lead in absentee balloting. However, Democrats have had better than expected absentee ballot voting. The turnout suggests that Obama is poised for a big Florida victory. The question is how did the Panhandle Democrats and independents voted. Those voters are McCain's only chance of victory. GOP turnout is not enough.

The New Terror Alert

Nate Silver has created the John McCain campaign stunts alert.