Nate Silver Projects David Rivera Victory

Nate Silver of The New York Times is giving David Rivera a 78.9 chance of winning Congressional district 25. Silver is a smart statistician. My take is he is basing his findings on the district being traditionally Republican and GOP voter turnout. Those factors help Rivera.

Polls have shown the race to be a toss up. The conservative Sunshine State News shows Garcia leading Rivera 44 percent to 43 percent. The Sunshine State News polls are unreliable and Republican-leaning. I'm not are what to make of SSN having Garcia up by one.

This and several other progressive blogs have documented the serious ethical lapses committed by Rivera. The Repubican candidate has faced allegations of domestic violence and road rage. Rivera falsely listed doing work for U.S. Agency for International Development on his disclosure form. USAID has no record of Rivera working for the organization. Rivera's personal conduct makes him unfit for public office.

I really hope Nate Silver is wrong about this race. Other ethically-challenged Republicans, such as Marco Rubio and Jim Norman, are going to be elected. A Rivera victory would signal that Florida Republicans can do whatever they want and face no consequences for their actions.