How Marco Rubio Represents the Shrinking GOP

Josh Marshall suspects the national conservative base of the Republican Party will hurt Charlie Crist's Senate campaign.

If Democrats have a bad night tomorrow night it will be a real headache for the White House. But I don't think there's any question that the big loser as of this moment is Charlie Crist and, potentially, a string of other moderate Republicans angling for 2010 nominations. Already yesterday, folks on the right who were most vocal in pushing Hoffman's candidacy were explicitly pointing to Crist as their next target and seeming genuinely confident they could deny him the Florida GOP senate nomination and hand it to Marco Rubio.

Another winner is Kendrick Meek. The Obama wave has produced more registered Democratic voters than Republicans. A Quinnipiac University poll has Meek beating Rubio in a 36 percent to 33 percent. The same poll shows Crist beating Meek. Crist has the ability to pull Democratic voters. Rubio's harshly rightwing candidacy and mudslinging tactics are a sign of a candidate unconfident with his message. Rubio falsely accused Crist and Obama of supporting homeless sex offenders. Voters are wise to Swiftboating tactics.

Short answer: Rubio is the candidate Meek wants. Alex Sink's gubernatorial will help Democratic turnout. Bill McCollum's lackluster fundraising has opened talk about State Sen. Paula Dockery running in the Republican primary. An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows only 20 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans. Rubio believes America is a right of center country. Someone should remind him Democrats won the popular vote in 4 of the last 5 presidential elections.