Thursday, October 23, 2008

GOP Death List Memo Part 2

Markos Moulitsas ZĂșniga got a hold of the GOP death list. Florida can say goodbye to Tom Feeney.

5.) Seat is likely to go unless significant turn of events
4.) Leaning Democrat, expect to lose most of these seats unless there's serious change
3.) True toss-up, slight wing could push either way, environment is critical to these races
2.) Leaning Republican, if there's a wave, some could be in trouble
1.) Should be ok but if there's a wave, we could see a surprise.

Rank 5

AK-AL, Don Young
AZ-01, Open
IL-11, Open
NJ-03, Open
NJ-07, Open
NY-13, Open
NY-25, Open
VA-11, Open
FL-24, Feeney
NY-29, Kuhl
MI-07, Walbert

Rank 4

MD-01, Open
NM-01, Open
OH-16, Open
CA-04, Open
NC-08, Hayes
CO-04, Musgrave
MI-09, Knollenberg

Rank 3

CT-04, Shays
IL-10, Kirk
LA-04, Open
MN-03, Open
MO-06, Barnes
NM-02, Open
NV-03, Porter
NY-26, Open
OH-15, Open
WA-08, Reichert
MO-09, Open
OH-01, Chabot
PA-03, English
MN-06, Bachmann
WY-AL, Open
AL-02, Open

Rank 2

CA-50, Bilbray
FL-08, Keller
FL-13, Buchanan
FL-21, Diaz-Balart
FL-25, Diaz-Balart
IL-06, Roskam
OH-02, Schmidt
PA-06, Gerlach
ID-01, Sali
VA-02, Drake
AZ-03, Shadegg
VA-05, Goode
TX-10, McCaul
NJ-05, Garrett
NE-02, Terry
KY-02, Open
NV-02, Heller

Rank 1

FL-15, Open
IL-18, Open
PA-18, Murphy
TX-07, Culberson
VA-10, Wolf
OH-07, Open

It is interesting how many Florida seats are in play. Contrary to Kenneth Quinnell's Florida Democratic Party spin, Gus Bilirakis is not in trouble.

Former Minnasota Governor Arme Carlson (R) came down hard on Michele Bachmann, in her endorsement of Barack Obama. Bachmann should go up to rank 4.

On the Democratic side, Tim Mahoney is toast.

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At October 24, 2008 7:59 PM , Blogger Kenneth said...

Nothing I said had anything to do with FDP. They weren't my source for the data and I never talked to anyone in FDP about it.

Interesting to note, however, that after you said I wasn't smarter than the folks at the DCCC, they added Mitchell to the emerging races list...


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