Fantasy-Based Blogging From the Left
Kenneth Quinnell is starting to write like a lefty version of Power Line's John Hinderaker. Quinnell titled a post "Bilirakis in Trouble."
A recent poll by Momentum Analysis has Gus Bilirakis in trouble in his re-election bid in FL-9. Gus only hits 45% in the poll. Newcomer Democratic challenger Bill Mitchell currently sits at 22%, but as the campaign moves forward and his name recognition increases, he’s likely to take a large chunk of the 34% undecided vote. Undecided voters tend to break for the challenger, particularly in a Democratic year such as 2008. Additionally, the undecided voters lean Democratic, 46%-37%.
Polling in the District on generic terms gives a 47%-38% Republican advantage with 15% undecided at this point, meaning Mitchell has a legitimate shot at making a move here if he has a strong campaign. Bilirakis is unpopular and polls lower than a generic Republican, meaning once people learn his name, they are less likely to vote for him. On top of that, he has little record to run on and is an inept campaigner. This race could well be in play.
Quinnell provided no link to the Momentum Analysis article. I have no idea if Quinnell was smoking crack or the data is real. Not that the data is convincing.
45 percent is actually a good number for a Congressional candidate. Another factor is this is the most red district in Florida. District 9 was created in 1982. Gus's father Michael won the seat. District 9 has never been held by a Democrat or someone that didn't have the last name Bilirakis. Phyllis Busansky had DCCC backing and name-recognition. Busansky lost over ten percent of the popular vote.
Bill Mitchell has never held public office and is an unknown. Mitchell ran in 2006 and lost in the Democratic primary. Quinnell cites the "47%-38% Republican advantage." That is a horrible disadvantage to an unknown running against an incumbant.
Bilirakis has raised $1,116,377. Mitchell raised a feeble $81,079 and spent $85,279. Michell has received no PAC money. That means the DCCC came to the conclusion the seat is not in play.
Quinnell claims Bilirakis is in trouble. Even though the Bilirakis family name has carried the district. Bilirakis has NRCC backing and is the superior fundraiser. Mitchell doesn't have the money for mailing or a campaign staff. Somehow Mitchell is going to triumph. This is bullshit and Quinnell knows it.
There is a difference between cheerleading and propaganda. I am not going to start writing delusional posts. That hurts the credibility of this blog and does nothing for the progressive movement. Writing fantasy-based posts about Bilirakis losing his seat doesn't make it so.