Monday, February 26, 2007

Pay Attention to Iowa

People are talking about the polling numbers between between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. What isn't being mentioned is John Edwards is pulling away in Iowa polls. Edwards was already ahead of Tom Vilsack. With Visack gone that clears the stage for Edwards.

The first three states are the Iowa caucas and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. Edwards will win South Carolina. If Edwards doesn't make any major missteps he will win Iowa. Edwards will go 2 out of 3. John Kerry was badly behind in New Hampshire in 2004. He made a last ditch play to win Iowa and he pulled New Hampshire.

The short answer is Clinton and Obama need to make sure they win New Hampshire. If either of them go 0 for 3 then it is over.

2 Comments:

At February 26, 2007 5:48 PM , Blogger Jim Johnson said...

The first three states are the Iowa caucas and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.

Except that's not entirely true.

It goes:
1 - Iowa Caucuses
2 - New Hampshire Primaries
3 - Nevada Caucuses
4 - South Carolina primaries

And don't forget that Florida could leap-frog South Carolina as well, given the current language reads one-week after New Hampshire, and South Carolina is the Saturday after that.

You may be right that Edwards could win Iowa and South Carolina... but Clinton could win Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire... then it's on the Super Duper Tuesday on Feb 5th...

 
At February 26, 2007 8:42 PM , Blogger Michael Hussey said...

Jim, Edwards is polling well in Nevada. I don't see Florida moving up. The RNC and DNC will stop that.

 

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