The R Word

The Bush administration has taken great pains to avoid using the word recession. White House Press Secretary Tony Fratto and White House Press Secretary Dana Perino avoided the word.

“The classic definition of a recession is not something that we could determine now, or forecast. It’s something that people look back on.”

Fratto punted in front of the White House Press Corp.



The White House economists have equal dread for the R word. "Recessions are things that are declared by other people — National Bureau of Economic Research." Edward Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. Unfortunately for Lazear, the National Bureau of Economic Research released a report that the United States has been in a recession since December of 2007.

The committee identified December 2007 as the peak month, after determining that the subsequent decline in economic activity was large enough to qualify as a recession.

Payroll employment, the number of filled jobs in the economy based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ large survey of employers, reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined in every month since then. An alternative measure of employment, measured by the BLS’s household survey, reached a peak in November 2007, declined early in 2008, expanded temporarily in April to a level below its November 2007 peak, and has declined in every month since April 2008. For a discussion of the difference between payroll and household survey employment measures, see Mary Bowler and Teresa L. Morisi, “Understanding the Employment Measures from the CPS and CES Surveys,” Monthly Labor Review, February 2006, pp. 23–38.

President Bush is now forced to use the R Word.

"Our economy is in a recession," Bush said flatly, speaking to reporters on the South Lawn only hours after the release of a government report showing the biggest month of job losses in 34 years. "This is in large part because of severe problems in our housing, credit and financial markets, which have resulted in significant job losses."

While repeatedly listing the serious problems in the economy, the White House has refused to embrace the actual term until Monday, when a panel for the National Bureau of Economic Research said the recession began last December and is ongoing.

Admitting there is a problem is the first step towards a solution. The Bush administration admits nothing. That is why the insurgency in Iraq happened. In 2005, Dick Cheney said the Iraq insurgency was in the "last throes." That doesn't explain why President-elect Barack Obama will inherit two wars and a recession.

Update: Crooks and Liars has video of Bush saying the R Word. Bush did everything to downplay the recession.

"We're working with the Federal Reserve and FDIC, and credit is beginning to move. A market that was frozen is thawing. There's still more work to do. But there are some encouraging signs."

What thawing is Bush talking about? 533,000 jobs were lost in November. Those aren't people that are going to do their patriotic duty of shopping?