Wednesday, April 26, 2006

I Still Don't Think Jan Schneider Can Win

The Colbert Report (video clip) has an interview with Jan Schneider. She has been having problems raising money for her campaign. Christine Jennings has the support of of DCCC and has been a better fundraiser. Schneider has only raised 122,514. Compare that to Republican Vernon Buchanan's $1,605,454. Even if Schneider won the primary - she would have a hard time winning the general election. That is why I am supporting Christine Jennings on ActBlue.

Sarasota Guy made a comment on a previous post I wrote about the district 13 race. I am aware that Joe Trippi supports Schneider and that she beat Jennings before. So what? Democrats wrote off the previous district 13 elections because no unknown Democrat is going to beat Katherine Harris in a red district. I am also not in awe of Trippi.

The netroots activists have to understand that they have a rare window of opportunity. If a Republican wins the seat (which is likely) then it will be hard for Democrats to knock out an incumbant. Jennings is running a more organized campaign. The netroots activists must decide if they want to win or do they want to keep having Republicans elected to office. If Schneider wins the primary I will be more than happy to support her. Will progressives do the same for Jennings or will they take their ball and go home? That is the same kind of mentality that had people voting for Nader in 2000. There is serious debate of where the country is headed. If the netroots think things will change with Republicans, in charge, then they are delusional.

4 Comments:

At April 27, 2006 6:23 PM , Blogger SarasotaGuy said...

Michael Hussey makes some odd assumptions in his message about the FL 13 race. Chief among them is the notion that supporters of Jan Schnedier do not recognize the opportunity for a Democrat to win the seat now that Katherine Harris is out.

In a district that is about 50% registerd Republican, 33% Democrat and 27% Independent, Jan Schneider got 45%. That means that Jan has already demonstrated that she can win crossover Republicans and Independents.

The only problem in the last two campaigns was with the Republicrats, or DINOs (Democrats in Name Only) who think that the only way to win is to emulate the Republicans. If Jan had been supported by the Party in the last two elections, she would have won. We simply did not have the money to place the critical ads in the last two weeks of the campaign. We had to waste too much fighting off the falied challenge from Christine Jennings. Jennings had 5 times as much money as Jan, but she still lost. If Democrats will pull together and back the only loyal Democrat in the race, then we will win.

It is the 5 to 10% of uneducated voters who make up their minds at the last minute who have to be won over. They are not going to see one wit of difference between Christine Jennings and Vern Buchanan. Buchanan is already running ads. So if Jennings is the candidate the voters will only have a choice between a far right Republican and a Republican-lite. If Jennings continues to refuse to stand up for any of the important issues, then people will go with the decisive one, even if he is a neo-con. Jennings is great at raising money, she is a banker, after all. But she is not so hot at inspiring voters. And that is what it will take.

We do not need any more wishy washy near-Republican Democratic candidates.

 
At April 27, 2006 7:15 PM , Blogger Michael Hussey said...

If Jan had been supported by the Party in the last two elections, she would have won. We simply did not have the money to place the critical ads in the last two weeks of the campaign.

If Schnedier can't raise the money or get Democratic support during the primary then she has no chance in hell during the general election.

The only problem in the last two campaigns was with the Republicrats, or DINOs (Democrats in Name Only) who think that the only way to win is to emulate the Republicans

Harry Truman said, "When voters are given a choice between voting for a Republican, or a Democrat who acts ... they'll vote for the Republican every time." Truman's right. I have no problem supporti ng Jan if she wins the primary. The truth is she doesn't stand a chance in hell.

 
At April 30, 2006 2:54 AM , Blogger SarasotaGuy said...

Of course Jan has a chance to win. Katherine Harris had $3.5 Million. She was popular as hell among the right wing and one of the Republicans' biggest fund raisers. She kept being invited back to Texas to raise illegal funds for Tom Delay. She had all the bigshot Republicans come to Florida for her - Delay, Duke ("I am a crook.") Cunningham, Dick Armey, Rove, Rice, Bush I, II and III (Jeb). It was major payback for putting George in the White House.

The simple fact is that the powers that wish they were in the Democratic Party were too scared of her money. No one else had ever raised as much for a Congressional campaign before. And, even despite her huge popularity among the Republican faithful, she only pulled 45% in this district.

If what Michael says were true, then no Democratic candidate in Florida who ran against an incumbent in 2004 has a chance to win. Jan Schneider did better than any of them. And she beat Christine Jennings fair and square. She is very popular here. But she was unable to run any ads last time out because the Dems didn't support her.

TO follow Michasl's logic, no Democrat has a chance any more, so we might as well all throw in the towell.

I disagree. I think that Jan has a beter than even chance to win.

Her main Republican opponent, Vern Buchanan, is running ads that call for cleaning up government. I wonder if he means that he intends to clean up the mess the Republicans have made? I wonder if he is trying to run against Bush and Harris.

Steve

 
At June 05, 2006 5:18 PM , Anonymous David Medrandia said...

Michael, bingo. If Jan can't raise money, she'll never win. Period.

I also saw a smart piece of reasoning on another blog about this where they said essentially, voters who pulled the lever against Jan twice already won't readily nullify their past reasoning. To expect them to do so is putting too much faith in the rational mind of voters. Most voters vote thier gut.

But hte nitty gritty, political reality we have to face is that if Jan can't raise money (no wonder - with a track record like hers) she can't win a general election.

We MUST be pragmatic.

 

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