The Khan Theory

As I'm sure everyone reading this blog knows, a couple days ago parts of the 2007 national Intelligence Estimate were released, which say that Iran ditched its nuclear weapons program in 2003. And, as many of you already know, the finger-pointing from left to right began from there and hasn't stopped. Actors on both sides of the political fence have used this news as a "Gotcha!" moment: Lefties claim it's proof that warmongers from Bush/Cheney & Co. have been lying all along; and of those Righties who aren't trying to paint this news as a CIA conspiracy asking Cheney, they claim that this is proof positive that the Iraq war had a positive effect on the Middle East. After all, the invasion happened in 2003, which is when Iran quit trying to make nukes. That must be too much of a coincidence, right?

I'm here, of course, to throw a wrench into righty argument.

Sure, the Iraq War having an effect is a possibility, but has anybody stopped to consider AQ Khan, Pakistan's mad nuke scientist who sold the technology to other countries? North Korea.. Yup, Khan's fault. Libya? Almost Khan's fault. Iraq? Khan talk to them. And Iran? I don't think I need to google it, I'll just assume that Khan talked with them, too. The only safer bets in the galaxy are betting against the white boxer, and whoever's playing the Patriots.

Khan was arrested in early 2004, though it looked like he was out of commission by 2001... Though by 2003, it was really apparent that Khan was fucked.

It's kinda tough to get drugs without your supplier. Khan was the dealer, and Iran was the addict... Without Khan, Iran was stuck with the old as shit nuclear equipment they have now, which makes production of a bomb all the more difficult. As is, were it Iran's goal to get the bomb, they're at least 8-10 years from achieving it... Without somebody like Khan to sell them the right equipment.

With the dealer out of the picture, Iran could have recognized the reality of their plight, thrown up their arms and shouted "Fuck it!" in frustration.

Or not. But hey, it's about as plausible as Iran canning their nuclear weapons program due to Bush's invasion of Iraq -- actually, the Khan theory might be more plausible. Stopping such a program, we can all agree, would be construed as a peaceful overture. But Iran intended to look peaceful by taking this action, then why haven't they made any other peaceful overtures? To believe that Iran stopped trying to get the bomb because of the Iraq War is to believe that this peaceful overture is an isolated instance of such -- beyond this, Iran's foreign policy towards America has consisted of two words: "fuck" and "you".

Conspiracy theories should at least have consistancy. If Iran stopped their nuclear weapons program because of the Iraq War, then logic dictates that they should have been more friendly with America on other accounts; which certainly hasn't been the case. So I like the Khan theory better.... Maybe it's just because I thought of it, but hey.

[Crossposted from Sugar Land is Dreaming]