Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group Poll on Tom Feeney

The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group released their finding of a poll on Tom Feeney's re-election prospects. The results are not good for the incumbant. Republican voters are highly dissatisfied with President Bush. Feeney has voted in lockstep with the President.

Florida 24th CD voters’ overall mood and attitudes toward President Bush and the Republican Party suggest a very difficult political environment for Congressman Feeney. Overall, just 24% of voters say that the country is headed in the right direction, while 67% believe that we are headed off on the wrong track.

While George W. Bush carried the district by 10 points in 2004 (55% to 45%), today, only 33% give him an excellent or good job rating and fully 44% say that he is doing a poor job. Of particular note is that only 66% of Republicans give Bush a positive job rating.

Moreover, a majority of voters in the district have a negative personal view of the President (52% versus 37% positive). In a generic 2008 presidential ballot, the Democratic and Republican candidates are in a statistical dead heat (42% vote for the Democrat, 41% vote for the Republican). In a district that has an eight-point Republican party registration advantage and that Bush carried by 10 points, this is a striking finding.

Only 23% of voters said Congressman Feeney deserves reelection, which is nearly equal to the proportion that say they will definitely vote to elect someone else (21%). Feeney’s re-elect is one of the lowest of any incumbent in the country.

In fairness, the poll was taken by a Democratic voting firm. That doesn't mean that Dems don't view Feeney as vulnerable. Democratics used to just write off District 24. Now they view it as a seat they can pick up. Feeney's ties to the Jack Abramoff and the FBI investigation places him in more trouble than just losing his seat. He has started a legal defense fund. Politicians don't do that unless they are worried about being indicted.

Feeney does have two advantages against Suzanne Kosmas. Incumbacy and a fundraising headstart. Actblue has a page for those interested in donating to the Kosmas campaign.