But now MySpace steals some of that thunder, for candidates will now need to spend some effort and, yes, money there to make sure that Obama doesn’t walk away with the virtual election and the subsequent rush of publicity (just watch: the winner on MySpace will end up being announced on network news shows; it would be more newsworthy than last night’s NBC Nightly News report on the voting campaign for Sanjaya).
I have never seen a mock primary have any affect on election results. Mitt Romney won CPAC and he is doing lousy in the polls. Does anyone remember who won the straw polls in 2004?
Jeff Jarvis is an idiot. He keeps saying blogs are going to replace the media. Tommy gave a speech along the same lines to a bunch of lawyers. The truth is Jarvis is a running joke amongst A list others from Eric Alterman to Atrios. He's horrible, boring and used his blog to promote AOL blogs without informing his readership he has worked for Time-AOL for years.
I haven't went to one Myspace candidate site yet. The software just presents the profile and links to blog updates. The Dean model is better for a campaign website.
Tommy Duncan makes this hysterical statement in the SOS comments.
What an interesting development. Could make all the primaries moot, regardless of when they are held… Jarvis makes good points too.
Last time I checked Howard Dean wasn't President. That comment is coming from someone who dissed the netroots and discussed our off-the-record talks online. I think I will mention he told me afterwards me didn't know what the netroots are. I love people who don't understand politics and media saying how it will magically change everything.
Amanda Marcotte wrote a good post on this subject.
Nor does the left blogosphere. There are some bloggers who do journalist work, but they are the exceptions that prove the rule. Truth told, good journalism is so utterly time-consuming and thankless that you need to farm it out to paying publications for compensation, so most bloggers who do that work will publish it outside of their blogs. But what left wing bloggers do offer is an opinion and analysis alternative, and as Mike says, a good deal of the time they simply are legions better than the paid pundits. For some reason, though, this obvious point about blogs is somehow avoided in most conversations about them.
My main theory as to why people avoid discussion the blogs’ major role in shaping opinion and offering analysis is that people are reluctant to admit outright that they look to others for opinion and analysis. The great myth of American politics is that we’re all just soberly analyzing the facts and opinions and “deciding for ourselves”, which would mean that we don’t lose out a whole lot if the field of available opinion is limited by Beltway wisdom. Unfortunately, human nature just isn’t like that. In reality, people tend to use the opinions they’re hearing as a gauge of what is possible and then reject the “extremes” of the available range of opinion and put themselves in the middle. There’s simply not a lot of thought that goes into it. Conservatives grasp this fact very well, which is why Fox News puts a bunch of conservatives on and characterizes them as left wing Democrats. Slowly but surely, they create the impression that very middle-of-the-road, boring liberal ideas are raving socialism—thus how I managed to hear this weekend from my dad how attempts to reduce carbon emissions through conservation and carbon offsets is actually a socialist plot to destroy life as we know it.
Jarvis is actually a conservative guy. Even though he doesn't want to admit it. Tommy lets is inner wingnut out with teens mooning teachers and Glenn Beck posts. They are the type of people who believe the internet will replace old media crap. Because they have no idea what they are talkuing about. People are still reading books and listening to the radio. Both were pronounced dead.
Jarvis and Tommy have never worked in the netroots. Tommy has been on the receiving end of it with the Rachel flap. I was the guy who organized the progressive blog push back. I understand online organization and journalism and Myspace will have zero impact on the election.
The funniest thing about Tommy and Jarvis's comments is they believe campaigns should spend vast amounts of money for a Myspace primary geared to mostly young people who don't vote. No sane campaign manager would take money that could go to Iowa and New Hampshire ground operations. Dean had the internet buzz in 2004. John Kerry ran a better campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire. The rest is history.
I think these are the same folks who would advocate cell-phone voting (i.e. america's top model)
ReplyDeleteThis is so typical of what I view on reality tv .... a judge without a jury 'advising people to pay the thing' .... and tv also leading americans to believe that america's next top model gets more voters than a pres. election.
It's way sick and this is just the same kinda silliness.
Sometimes I wish I were still sleepin at the wheel but out here in real life at least there are the highlights.
I've always wondered why Jeff Jarvis is considered an expert on anything. And anynone whose blog becomes popular through all the links that Instapundit gives them certainly it's on the left end of the dial.
ReplyDeleteAnd to add to Amanda's comments...
"Truth told, good journalism is so utterly time-consuming and thankless that you need to farm it out to paying publications for compensation, so most bloggers who do that work will publish it outside of their blogs."
Real journalism is very time consuming, but another reason why bloggers publish journalistic work outside of their blogs is because being backed by a media organization gives you a boost of confidence; more authority. When I want to interview somebody, I feel much better saying "I'm from Raw Story" rather then "I'm from crabby ass blog X that yells at people a lot, but really, truly, I'm trying to be fair!"
Blogs are online talk shows: opinionated as all fuck. And just like we don't see real journalism on O'Reilly or Limbuagh, we're hardly going to see real journalism on blogs.
The thing about online primaries is they make real news on the MSM. Howard Dean propelled his victory in the MoveOn primary to become the front-runner going into the Iowa Caucuses. Now, his campaign did not have the off-line organization that he did on-line, so Kerry finished a disappointing third.
ReplyDeleteThe MySpace primary will legitimize whomever makes a better-than-expected showing. And having it two weeks before Iowa and three before New Hampshire will have an impact on the primary.
It will have an effect because it will be in the news for several days afterwards.
But to say that mock primaries have no effect on election results is misleading. Unlike MoveOn or MySpace, the straw polls are usually limited - like the CPAC was.
Finally, on your point about blogs vs MSM - you're a bit off. As people become more and more comfortable finding on-line sources for their news AND analysis, blogs will gain greater prominence. That is what Jarvis (and other pro-Cluetrain bloggers) means. There is no reason why a blogger can not have the same or greater level of authority on a subject than a reporter. There is no reason why a blogger can not use standard journalism practices to report news. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't.
"The thing about online primaries is they make real news on the MSM."
ReplyDeleteWe're not talking about frontpage, hardhitting coverage of the MySpace poll on the frontpage of national newspapers. If anything, such a poll would become a fluff news story but nothing beyond that. It's tough to take MySpace seriously -- especially when a great lot of its users are under 18 and can't vote.
"Howard Dean propelled his victory in the MoveOn primary to become the front-runner going into the Iowa Caucuses."
Apples and oranges.
In 2004, blogs and online organizations we're still new beasts. Bloggers always like to get their egos stroked, so when Howard Dean became the candidate that paid attention to them bloggers went nuts with spasmodic glee, claiming that this changed everything. Dean went on to get his clock cleaned on every single state primary and caucus.
Dean did prove that bloggers can generate buzz and coverage, though. But one main difference between the 2004 and 2008 primary seasons is that, in 2004, Dean was really the only candidate who focused on blogs. (Greasing the palms of Kos and Armstrong with some cash sure didn't hurt Dean, either.) As expected, Dean became the only candidate that bloggers focused on. But in 2008, every candidate is focusing on bloggers -- that means that the support of bloggers is going to be split. There will be no "Dean" on the 2008 campaign because of this.
"It will have an effect because it will be in the news for several days afterwards."
And so will stories about candidates flipping pancakes in NH.
The thing is Jim Johnson is a Republican consultant who hasn't been blogging that long. Taz and I blogged through the Dean moment. We seen how it works from our side. Internet buzz is all good and fine. It doesn't replace GOTV. The GOP did that better than Dems in 2004. The left is getting better at it.
ReplyDelete