Monday, October 23, 2006

Quinnipiac Poll: Crist & Davis

The lates Quinnipiac Poll on the Florida Governor race is rather surprising.

Crist - 46 percent
Davis - 44 percent

The poll shows a dead heat. What's even more surprising is that Davis has a 14 point lead among independents. The poll was taken with 816 likely voters. This doesn't match other recent polls showing Crist leading. The poll shows that the participants
are now more familiar with Davis. Crist's recent flip-flopping on three issues have caught him heat.

The problem with the poll is these are likely voters. These people follow the news more regularly. Where Crist has the advantage is with people who have seen the candidate more. Crist has beaten Davis in the TV ad time battles. Short answer: Davis needs people to see him and fast. The one-on-one campaign style he favors has to go out the door.

Update: Here is the poll.

A few things stand out. The candates have a huge gender gap.

Support among male voters

Crist - 56 percent
Davis - 34 percent

Support among women voters

Crist - 56 percent
Davis - 38 percent

Crist still has a 48 to 35 percent advantage in favorability. Much of that is the increased face time Crist has had on television.

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