Saturday, February 09, 2008

The McCain Problem in the Red States

Mr. G noted something I have been wondering. John McCain is the future GOP nominee that is winning blue states. McCain has been tanking in the red states. Mike Huckabee has won Kansas big. Huckabee won 60 percent of the popular vote.

McCain isn't going to win states like New York in the general election. A McCain candidacy allows Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to pick off red states. This seriously affects the Congressional races. I was talking with a friend and trying to figure out how the Republicans can win with McCain. The Democrats need to stumble and McCain needs a lot of luck.

The GOP may attempt a delegate challenge on the convention floor. Long story short: the delegates shift their alliance to Huckabee. That is a long shot and requires looking up convention rules. I don't have the time. The other option is prayer. It's a good thing the GOP is the faith-based party.

Over to you, Mr. G.



At February 10, 2008 3:43 PM , Blogger tas said...

The GOP will try to fix it's McCain problem with -- and mark my words on this -- a McCain/Huckabee ticket.

At February 11, 2008 1:52 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm with you except for the democrats picking off red states.

The truth of the matter is that all these Huckabee supporters will vote McCain if he is the nominee. Sure, there may be some disenfranchisement of the right over McCain but November is a long way away and there will be enough time for that to wear off.

Typically Red states will remain Red. Typically Blue states will remain Blue. As usual it will come down to the swing states where McCain is doing very well. McCain won't win New York, sure. But he'll have great shots at Florida, Ohio, etc.

A Huckabee VP nod would all but seal the deal. Combine McCains appeal to the middle and Huckabee's appeal to the Right? Forget about it. However, I'm not convinced that this VP nod will come.

As far as a delegate challenge, not gonna happen. If McCain comes out on top he'll be the nominee.

I'm a little surprised to see you so concerned about whats going to happen at my party's convention. Shouldn't you be worrying about what is going to happen at yours with all those crazy super delegates?

At February 11, 2008 5:12 PM , Blogger tas said...

If I were a Republican, the thing I'd be worried about with a McCain candidacy is that he just won't excite enough of the base to come out and vote, and that would give Democrats a better shot in swing states. One big advantage that Dubya had is his ability to make the entire GOP base think he was talking to them, and this brought out the hawks, fiscal conservatives, and evangelicals. With McCain, he has the hawks, he might be able to unite the fiscal conservatives despite his votes against Bush's tax cuts, but the evangelicals... Forget it. I almost forgot about the immigration crowd -- McCain ain't getting them, either.

The difference here is excitement in a candidate. Generally, most on the right will vote for what they perceive to be the lesser evil -- just like those of us on the left do. But McCain doesn't excite the base, and that will hurt his White House chances.

Of course, if Democrats are stupid enough to nominate Hillary, then McCain can make up for the loss of conservative voters -- slim, but important, as it may be -- with the independent voters he'll net. But if Obama becomes the nominee, McCain can't depend on the independents to swing his way so the conservative vote (and possible lack thereof within it) really comes into play.

McCain has to name a hardcore conservative as his veep if he's to stand a chance in November. Though I may regret saying "Mark my words" about Huckabee because he might be looked about as too extreme..

What would be the most feared ticket for my side.. Hmmm..

McCain/Gingrich? Ole G-Man got a huge reception at CPAC last year, he could net more conservative votes..

(I suspect the McCain campaign has kicked around the ideas I've discussed here, but since I think all of this might help them, I hope they don't monitor Pushing Rope.) (And I suspect they don't, whew.)

At February 11, 2008 5:55 PM , Blogger Michael Hussey said...

I'm not convinced Huckabee will be the VP nominee. The Red States are up for play with a McCain nomination. Voters don't vote for the VP. There is little evidence that VP picks influence votes.

Chris Bowers threatens to quit the Democratic Party if Super Delegates don't vote for the candidate with the most state delegates. I'm not a fan of Super Delegates because it gives too many party insiders influence on the nominating process.

That said, the whole point of Super Delegates is for them to vote for the candidate they want as the nominee. This has been in place for quite some time. They aren't suppose to vote in lockstep. I agree with Kevin Drum, it's naive for Bowers to think otherwise.

At February 12, 2008 12:06 AM , Blogger tas said...

Veep has to play some role in people's decision making about a candidate, though -- one just can't pick anybody to be their veep. I'm sure McCain will try to pick someone who will round out his conservative credentials, making him more palpable to the CPAC-types. Hell, maybe it'll even get that Rush Limbaugh monkey off his back for a while.

I understand the position of superdelegates, and I think it's stupid to have them and they should be done away with. Could you imagine fissures the Democrats would go through if Obama gets the most states, most votes, and most actual delegates... Yet the party establishment -- the superdelegates -- give the nomination to Hillary? Kiss the Afro-American and young american votes bub-bye forever. If Obama gets the most votes, states, and delegates, then he deserves the nomination. That's democracy. If the Democrats don't believe in that, then.. Why are they called "Democrats"?


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